PMI-tal for Kina viser en svagt stigende optimisme i erhvervslivet, og for første gang siden 2018 er der udsigt til en stigning i eksportordrene.
Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:
The latest read on Chinas manufacturing sector suggests nascent green shoots remain alive and economic activity, although patchy, is continuing to stabilise into the start of 2020. However, despite signs of stabilisation longer term structural pressures remain and activity levels remain precarious as the tariffs and hangover from the deleveraging drive take their toll on economic activity, which keeps policymakers in easing mode.
Both the official PMI and Caixin PMI remained in expansionary territory in December as the trade détente continues to support business sentiment, although the Caixin PMI was slightly less optimistic than the official data.
The Official PMI, which primarily tracks larger companies and state-owned enterprises, held steady at 50.2 according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, beating estimates of 50.1. The output, new orders, and new export orders sub-indices all rose, with new export orders rising above 50 for the first time since June 2018, indicating a potential improvement in both global and domestic demand as sentiment is boosted by the phase 1 trade accord and potential stabilisation in global growth as central banks have stepped up monetary easing.
The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which primarily tracks small companies and is more balanced toward the private sector, slowed marginally to 51.5, down from last month’s 3 year high of 51.8, narrowly missing estimates of 51.6. Because the Caixin PMI tracks smaller firms, it is much more volatile and more prone to seasonal effects. The Caixin PMI new export orders sub-index expanded only slightly, as the Caixin PMI tends to be more skewed towards export oriented firms it may be providing the truer representation of external pressures as global demand continues to suffer despite the acclaimed trade deal.
On January 1st the PBOC cut the RRR by 50 bps, effective January 6. The move is expected to release RMB 800bn in base money liquidity ahead of Lunar New Year holiday squeeze, as well as reducing banks’ funding costs by RMB 15bn on an annual basis, helping to bring down financing costs for SMEs and private enterprises. Over the weekend the PBOC also announced financial institutions should re-benchmark loan rates to the loan prime rate (LPR), effectively driving lower lending rates across the economy because the LPR is at 4.15% compared to the old benchmark at 4.35%, notwithstanding cuts to the LPR throughout 2020.
