Vurdering af konsekvenser af et Brexit fra det internationale finanshus ING:
blandt andet:
> Forvent højere bidrag til EU fra Danmark, da Brexit skaber et stort hul i EU’s budget
> Nationalistpartier vil styrkes, hvilket vil vanskeliggøre en yderligere integration i EU, herunder arbejdet mod en politisk union..
The end of the EU? The political implications could be greater than the perceived economic threat from Brexit. Rather than the loss of a “difficult” reluctant member being the catalyst for closer European integration, the UK’s exit could potentially lead to thoughts of a broader fragmentation of the EU.
With anti-establishment parties gaining increased traction ahead of upcoming European elections due to the weak recovery and worries over migration, the sight of the UK acquiring complete control over its own borders along with economic and domestic policy could give the broader anti-EU movement more momentum.
At the very least, pressure from nationalist parties could deter mainstream parties from moving on with deeper integration and instead campaign for more devolvement of powers to member states. Additionally, if Scottish independence also comes about, then separatist movements such as in Catalonia, could gain confidence and support.
2) EU balance of power. Even if the UK’s departure doesn’t lead to catastrophe, it could still upset the political balance. Without the UK and its advocacy of free trade, the influence of more interventionist European countries, led by France, would become greater. It could also impact the EU-US negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The pro-TTIP group would lose a major supporter if the UK left, with a recent Eurobarometer survey showing 62% of Britons in favour, compared to an EU average of 53%.
3) Trade. Around 10% of EU exports go to the UK, with the majority of EU countries running trade surpluses with the UK. Even if a trade deal is agreed within the two-year window, our expectations of a sharply weaker EUR/GBP exchange rate in an environment of weaker UK demand means that exports to the UK are likely to suffer. Sterling devaluation also means UK exports to Europe become cheaper, potentially taking market share from intra-EU trade. Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany have the greatest exposure to the UK, while diverging regulatory and product standards could exert a negative influence. The euro could come under pressure against other (non-sterling) major currencies, which might provide some support, while uncertainty means European stock markets could well weaken in the short-term.
4) The EU budget. The UK is a net financial contributor to the EU and so the loss of revenue means either lower spending on the poorer Eastern and Southern EU states or higher contributions from the likes of the Netherlands, Finland and Sweden. We estimate that Germany might need to pay an extra €2.5bn.
5) Foreign direct investment. European companies with FDI in the UK could take a loss on currency revaluations, while weaker EUR/GBP means profits from UK operations would be lower in euro terms. However, non-EU corporates may switch investment plans from the UK to EU member states
6) Financial services. The UK may find it increasingly difficult to be the centre of excellence for financial services to the rest of the EU, meaning increasing business for other European Financial centres, so boosting employment, incomes and taxation revenue.
7) Free movement of workers. If Brexit occurs, will the 2.4 million EU workers residing in the UK be forced to leave? Likewise, what will happen to the 2 million Britons living The shock from Brexit January 2016 18 and working in the EU? Will we see huge reverse migration flows? Brexit might provide political cover across the EU for more restrictive action in the wake of the current refugee crisis.
8) International influence. Although the EU would be smaller in size post-Brexit, it is unlikely that the EU would lose significant influence at institutions such as the IMF and the UN given that it is mostly represented by the individual member states. However, the loss of the UK from the EU umbrella could potentially hurt at the margin.
9) Longer term. European Union demographic projections show that the UK is the country with the fastest growing population, which is expected to be larger than both France and Germany in around 25 years. At the same time, the EU’s population is projected to shrink. This suggests higher taxes will be required in the EU relative to the UK, to cover the costs (healthcare, pensions, etc) of an ageing population
