Fra BNP Paribas:
The passage of the Benn Bill makes No Deal substantially less likely and increases the incentives for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek a deal, in our view. While other paths are possible, we think an extension of Article 50 with a general election aimed at breaking the deadlock is the most likely scenario. However, this election would likely be highly
uncertain. We have updated our estimated probabilities on Brexit to Deal 40%, No Deal 30%, Revoke 30%.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces difficult
choices. The UK Parliament has passed a law
essentially requiring a Brexit deal or an extension of
Article 50.
However, the positions of the UK government and the
EU regarding a deal still appear irreconcilable, while
Johnson has said he will not request an extension of
Article 50 under any circumstances.
This seemingly impossible trilemma sets the stage for
a possible clash with Parliament soon after it returns
on 14 October (the expected date at the time of
writing).
We think Johnson now faces four options: extension,
circumventing the Benn Bill, ensuring someone else
requests the extension, or striking a deal. Looking
further ahead, we think an election is almost
inevitable, likely preceded by an extension of Article 50.
Mulighederne:
The options:
1. Seek an extension
2. Find a way to circumvent the Benn bill
3. Ensure someone else requests the extension
4. Strike a deal
Seeking an extension
Given his repeated emphasis on leaving the EU on
31 October, seeking an extension would make
Johnson vulnerable to attacks from the Brexit party
and others who would paint him as untrustworthy.
Although he might seek an extension and argue he
had been forced into it, Johnson has repeatedly
made clear this is not his first choice.
Circumventing the Benn Bill
Despite reports that Johnson and his team are trying
to find a loophole in the Benn bill, the consensus in
the legal community appears to be that it is
watertight. If it seems Johnson will fail to request an
extension on 19 October despite not having struck a
deal, two things could happen.
Firstly, the UK Supreme Court could hold an
expedited hearing within around 48 hours and force
Johnson to abide by the law. Secondly, the House of
Commons could hold a vote of no confidence and
Johnson could be replaced as prime minister before
Box 1: Vote of no confidence
A vote of no confidence in the government
requires a simple majority and begins a 14-
day period in which an election can be avoided
if a new government can form and win a vote
of confidence.
If no new government can win majority support
in this period, parliament is dissolved and the
prime minister chooses an election date at
least 25 working days later (traditionally on a
Thursday).
According to press reports, Boris Johnson
might refuse to resign if he lost a no
confidence vote, running down the 14-day
clock. However, parliament could demonstrate
that a different prime minister would win a
confidence vote, eg by passing a symbolic
motion.
The replacement need not be Corbyn, but
could be any MP with sufficient support. In this
case, some constitutional experts have argued
the Queen would step in and appoint the MP
Parliament had shown its support for. Failing
that, there are other possibilities including a
judicial review or amending the relevant law
(the Fixed Term Parliaments Act).
A more likely way for the Benn law to fail in its intended
purpose is if the EU does not grant an acceptable
extension. This could happen in three ways:
1. The EU27 could offer an extension with
conditions – for example of a certain length –
that MPs find unacceptable. Since parliamentary
approval is required for any extension (other than
one to 31 January 2020), this could sink such an
offer. However, given the strong anti-No Deal
majority in parliament, this seems unlikely.
2. The EU27 could refuse to offer an extension. EU
leaders have stated that any extension would have
to be for a specific purpose to break the deadlock.
But given that an election would almost certainly
follow an extension, this also seems unlikely.
3. Johnson could try forcing the EU to reject an
extension, for example by asking a sympathetic EU
country to veto.
However, with EU budget discussions in the near
future and the fact that No Deal could have
significant economic consequences, it is improbable
that a EU member state would be willing to be
blamed for the repercussions.
Moreover, Parliament will be sitting in the weeks
after 19 October. If Johnson appears set on going
against the spirit of the law, MPs could oust him
using a no-confidence vote (see Box 1).
Ensuring someone else requests the extension
If the law states that the prime minister must request an
extension and Johnson can neither change the law nor
request an extension, Johnson may wish to make
someone else prime minister.
There are several routes to this outcome, but the most
likely is via his resignation. Johnson could, for instance,
resign as prime minister after the EU summit on 18
October, and ask the Queen to appoint a caretaker.
He could remain leader of the Conservatives and fight a
subsequent general election, claiming that he had been
forced to resign by parliament.
However, there are a number of constitutional
complications. These include the convention that the
prime minister is the leader of a party, and the convention
that the Leader of the Opposition may be approached
when the prime minister resigns from the government.
How these conventions would be interpreted is not yet
clear, but the major risk for Johnson is that he allows
opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to become prime
minister. Conservative MPs and voters may view this as
unacceptable, even if it is temporary.
