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2) How are financial markets affected?
Second, Brexit will make financial markets more sensitive to the vulnerabilities of the 19-nation eurozone. Sterling has already plunged to a 30-year low. Investors will ask whether, in the light of the Brexit shock, eurozone governments have the political will and public support to strengthen the architecture of European monetary union.
One test will be whether Europe’s banking union, including a plan for common deposit insurance, makes progress over the next 12 months. At present it is blocked. More ambitious proposals, such as an Italian plan for common EU “migration bonds” to finance the EU’s response to the refugee and migrant crisis, will have little chance of being turned into action.
Individual eurozone countries will be under intensified market scrutiny. Ahead of the British vote, yield spreads widened between German government bonds and those of less financially solid southern European countries.
The outlook for Portugal, which is ruled by a shaky coalition of the moderate and radical left, is unsettling investors. The deep-seated troubles of Greece have never gone away. In Spain, which holds a general election on Sunday, the prospects for stable government and economic reform are clouded by a fragmented political party system and Catalan separatism.
3) What does this mean for populist insurgents?
Anti-establishment political movements, especially far-right parties in western Europe, will take inspiration from Brexit. Among the most galvanised will be France’s National Front, whose leader, Marine Le Pen, is eyeing next year’s presidential election. She is unlikely to win, but she could come a strong second.
Brexit means a bumpy road ahead for the UK economy
The vote for Britain to leave the EU will have grave consequences
The far right will not come to power in any EU country. But it will be capable of attracting enough support to shape political debate, on the left as well as the right, and therefore to influence governments’ actions. Immigration policy will be a case in point.
5) How will Brexit affect the EU itself?
Finally, Brexit will disrupt the EU’s internal equilibrium. With Britain out, the bloc’s seven non-euro countries will account for only 15 per cent of EU economic output, as opposed to more than 30 per cent with Britain in. Brexit will increase Germany’s political and economic supremacy in the EU — a prospect neither Berlin nor its partners welcome.
Brexit will harm the EU’s cohesion, confidence and international reputation. The biggest consequence of all, therefore, is that Brexit will undermine the liberal political and economic order for which Britain, the EU and their allies and friends around the world stand.
