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Saxo Bank om demokraternes udskilningsløb: Biden er færdig

Hugo Gaarden

torsdag 13. februar 2020 kl. 11:17

Blandt Demokraterne tegner der sig nye tendenser under valgkampen, især fordi Joe Biden er ved at være færdig. Buttigieg og Klobuchar er styrket.

Uddrag fra Saxo Bank:

Macro Dragon: Biden folding like a deck of cards…

First Iowa, now New Hampshire, Next South Carolina…

  • Likely the two most interesting things as we get to the final months to days (depending on the candidate) on the pathway to Democratic Nominee that is due in July are around Biden & Peter-B
    • Biden’s abysmal performance not just in Iowa (he was lucky that the process was such a fiasco), yet also news that he has left New Hampshire early to get to South Carolina – i.e. he knows he is not going to be doing well in NH. To KVP “sleepy Joe” is done, call it stake in the heart, call it the family corruption allegations (& to be honest some pretty clear cut & public relationships & “business” dealings that are questionable at best), call it him trying to ride on Obi’s coattails too much, the game is over the player just does not know it yet. Biden feels that the American voters of African heritage will be one of the key edges that he has, as the primaries move South – if he does not dominate & take South Carolina, it would be the paragon of burning money & time were he to continue, with Biden likely crippled beyond repair. Bloomberg is likely best poised to benefit from this – yet we still have to wait until Super Tue, Mar 3 before he fully joins the circus.
  • Peter Buttigieg & Amy Klobuchar (KVP had to look her up) are getting their 15min of shine – whilst they will likely do well in NH. The question is how well will they do post Iowa & New Hampshire. KVP is still on team “Feel the Bern” simply on the thesis that to beat crazy (or try), you need crazier! Which is another way of saying, very highly motivated voters. Still early days & a lot can still play out over the next few months, it does look like Bernie will take NH – hopefully with no recounts & delayed results.
  • Its worth noting the turnout in Iowa was no higher than it was in 2016 as whole – so whether this is a sign of people’s bark having little bite, remains to be seen. At the end of the day, if the economy is doing well & people are doing well – then its about pragmatism & less about the ethical or non-ethical conduct of the commander in chief. I.e. Do not fall for the ethics fallacy (good or right), people do this in politics all the time. Do you know what group tends to be very pragmatic? Minorities. There is an old cliché that minorities always vote democrat – would not be too sure as we get to the big Nov 3 date.
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