Saxos Steen Jakobsen
The main points:
Conservatives and PM May have executed a terrible campaign – she has done ALL the mistakes of Clinton and the establishment:
· Safe pair of hands
· Not committing to anything
· Talking about energy regulationUK Macro Election presentation 2017 (2)
· No committing to tax freeze
On the other hand Labor has been able to reframe
· The Tories question: What kind of Brexit do you want? To what kind of country do you want?
· Classic tax & spend, but this time the classic middle class is safe, while “rich” & “corporates” needs to pay more….
· Wild promises free lunch and education, 250 billion GBP infrastructure program
· No commitment on Brexit
· Corbyn policy is economically naïve but he is getting the young voters.
My final call:
· The election will end with Tories having EXACTLY the same majority as now – hence a lost election and a muddy BREXIT mandate.
· Prime Minister May is the de facto loser independently of the final results as her “management” has been poor and rudderless leaving more doubt than the clear vision needed – hence the title: Unintended consequences (May getting weaker mandate and populous empty promises still attracting voters.)
Market calls:
If correct in my call… GBPUSD should correct 1-2% but overall the next major level is 1.3500 (& 1.4000 in 2018 based on credit impulse, weak dollar and terms of trade improvement & the better trade is probably to be long EURGBP towardsparity (EU growth > UK growth, EUR undervalued, EU Current Account surplus vs. UK Current Account)
Steen Jakobsen
