Polls tighten ahead of Democratic primaries – For a time the momentum was clearly behind Elizabeth Warren winning the Democratic presidential nomination, with her surging in the opinion polls in September and October, having steadily gained popularity through the year.
Her fortunes have since turned almost as sharply, seemingly on the back of her ‘Medicare for all’ policy – from a peak of c.27% in the opinion polls (RealClearPolitics average) as of early October, she has now fallen back to third place behind Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at 16.7%, while the probability of her winning has fallen to just 18% from 52% previously (according to the PredictIt betting market).
The entry of Michael Bloomberg into the contest this week has further complicated predictions; while he still ranks fairly low in opinion polls at just 2.4%, his probability of winning the contest is not much behind rivals at 11%. The nominees will face one another again in a debate on 19 December (the sixth so far), with the first serious test of their candidacy coming at the Iowa caucus on 3 February.
Thereafter, a succession of state primaries and caucuses – peaking on ‘Super Tuesday’ on 3 March, and continuing until June – will determine who Democrats nominate as their candidate to face President Trump in the November 2020 election. (Bill Diviney)
