Fra BNP Paribas:
Since the first 2016 presidential debate, Hillary Clinton has pulled well ahead of Donald Trump in the polls. The Senate, currently held by Republicans by a 54-46 margin, could swing to a Democratic majority if current polls are correct, although this shift could last just two years.
The House, where Republicans currently enjoy a 246-186 majority, looks likely to stay in Republican control, although that could change in the case of a Clinton landslide.
In this issue, we update the state of the presidential race, look closer at the Senate and House races, and overview of how majorities matter for the legislative process. Election Day is just two weeks away. The candidates have completed the three commissioned presidential debates, which marks an end to their large-scale, head-to-head public appearances.
Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump will now likely focus on the campaign trail in key battleground states from now until Election Day. Mrs Clinton has pulled further ahead of Mr Trump since the first debate On the eve of the first presidential debate on 26 September, the race tightened considerably. Mrs. Clinton had seen her lead in the popular vote narrow from 7.6pp in early August to as little as 0.7pp as of 18 September, and to about 1.5pp on 26 September, according to RealClearPolitics’s national polling averages.
Mr Trump had pulled ahead in key battleground states like Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, and Mrs Clinton maintained a narrow Electoral College lead. However, since then, polls have shifted sharply back in favor of Mrs Clinton. The FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model currently puts Mrs Clinton’s chances to win at 83.0%. However, the proportion of voters who are undecided or supporting third parties is high this time, increasing uncertainty. The share of voters who are undecided is 10 percentage points higher than at the same stage in 2012.
On a global scale, the US typically has a pretty poor turnout of registered voters. Over the past 80 years, voter turnout as a percentage of the voting-age population has varied between a low of 51.5% (1996) to a high of 64.9% (1960). Turnout over the last four election cycles has averaged 58.7%, with the 2004 and 2008 elections seeing relatively high turnouts that breached 60%. As of 2012, African-American voters held the highest turnout rate at 66.2%, followed by white voters (64.1%); Hispanic voter turnout came in significantly below both at 48%. Younger voters (age 18-29) tend to turn out at a rate 15 to 20 points lower than citizens over the age of 30.
Despite the long-standing dominance of the two-party system, the largest share of the electorate (40%) identifies as Independent; 32% identify as Democrats, and 27% identify as Republicans. Historically, high-turnout US elections favour Democrats as marginal turnout tends to come from minorities and young voters. In the United States, early voting is legal as long as election officials do not count the votes until Election Day. The number of voters who vote before Election Day has grown to just over 30% in 2012 from about 10% in 1996.
This year, early voting began in a number of states in late September. Thus far, the data indicate record-high, early voting turnout. Whether this is an indication for overall voter turnout is difficult to say, as it could just be enthusiastic voters getting a jump on their vote or marginal voters joining the process. Though the votes are not counted until November 8th, party affiliations of early voters are known. On the basis of that, so far early-voting data appear to reflect recent polling, indicating that Mrs Clinton could gain more votes than Barack Obama did in 2012 in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, and Mr Trump could do better than Mitt Romney in Iowa and Ohio.
In an effort to mobilize voters, the Clinton campaign has maintained 489 field offices nationwide vs the Trump campaign’s 2071 . The Clinton campaign and associated super-PACs have also booked USD 78.3mn in advertising for the final three weeks of the campaign, which is more than double the value booked by the Trump campaign and its backer.
This campaign has been unpredictable in several respects, though historically, the closer we get to polling day the more reliable polling has been. Two weeks ahead of the 2012 election, FiveThirtyEight put Barack Obama’s chance of winning at 74.4% to Mitt Romney’s 25.6%.
