Fra Danske Bank:
In our previous update, we asked for your opinions for the Reader Prediction Survey 2026. The findings are hardly surprising. The number one concern for our readers is the increased hybrid warfare in Europe, closely followed by US hostility towards NATO allies. Overall rising US military aggression is also among our readers’ top concerns. There are some comforting findings as well. It seems clear to our readers that the threat posed by Russia is in the form of hybrid warfare instead of a traditional military action.
Regarding the target of expected US hostile move, if any, 70% of our readers thought Iran would be the one at risk. 10% of our readers thought Colombia would be next, and a similar share saw Greenland most at risk. Bear in mind that our survey was released on January 9 th and most responses were collected around mid-January, when Trump was making very explicit threats against Greenland.
Our readers consider it more likely than not that Iran’s Islamic Regime leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will be ousted by end- 2026. Regarding Venezuela, most of our readers (48%) expect status quo for 2026 (de facto US governance) but a significant share predicts political chaos (37%). For Ukraine, our readers are leaning towards a protracted conflict (52%) while there is significant confidence for a compromise deal as well (43%).
Our readers have strong faith in the stability of the global oil market. A majority (46%) foresees oil prices in 55-64 USD range this year, lower than currently, but almost a similar share (39%) sees prices moderately higher. If prices were to suddenly spike, our readers think it would most likely be because of a repricing of the geopolitical risk premium (52%) rather than an OPEC+ / Saudi production cut (30%).
In our regional sections, we discuss the status of the peace talks in Ukraine and the US-Iran negotiations. In both cases, the two sides have agreed to a second round of talks but no date has been confirmed yet. We discuss how the normalising tanker traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz might signal that a US attack on Iran has at least been postponed for now. In the case of Ukraine, there seems to be some progress in talks around security guarantees. We keep a close eye on the Munich Security Conference, and whether we learn about any details.
In China, we think the recent purge of two top generals makes it less likely China would engage militarily with Taiwan in the short run. In our Under the Radar section, we discuss the Cuban economy under pressure as the US is restricting oil supplies to the country, and India, which has been striking trade deals with all the important players lately – signalling that it has undoubtedly become one itself.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
