Fra Danske Bank:
Ukraine peace talks have made limited progress. As a result, we have updated our scenarios for Ukraine, and our baseline scenario is now one where we see the war being dragged on into 2026. We are a bit more optimistic than before about a sustainable peace deal, however, and see it somewhat less likely that the Trump administration would force an unfair deal on Ukraine.
In our editorial, we discuss Russia’s hybrid warfare in Europe. It is clear Russia has stepped up its aggression. Since September 10, mysterious drones have been spotted at least in Romania, in all Nordic countries, as well as in Lithuania and Germany. In addition, Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated the Estonian airspace on September 19. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s capabilities of striking deeper into the Russian territory have improved, and the US has promised to share key intelligence information that helps Ukraine identify targets.
In Middle East, Israel has expanded its invasion into the Gaza city, and President Trump has proposed a peace plan for Gaza. We are, however, doubtful Hamas would accept the terms in their current form. The UN reimposed sanctions against Iran and the EU followed suit. It remains to be seen whether Israel will use Iran’s reluctance to negotiate on the nuclear program as a pretext to strike again, with an aim to topple the Islamic regime.
In Asia, tensions over Taiwan have eased somewhat as Trump has taken a step down on issues that provoke China in his quest to make a trade deal. He might reverse course, though, on the other side of a deal. We still see a low probability of a war in Taiwan within the next five years.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
