Fra Danske Bank:
Ceasefire in Middle East has held and at least betting markets are placing a declining probability of the ceasefire collapsing any time soon. As a result, we have lowered our risk assessment for a broader, regional conflict in Middle East from moderate to low. We keep our overall risk assessment unchanged, however, as tensions continue to build up in the Caribbean. Ukraine ceasefire talks are still ongoing, and it seems this is the most serious effort we have seen so far to reach a deal.
In our Editorial, we discuss the updated US National Security Strategy. In total, the document is much shorter than the NSS published during Trump’s first term. It also greatly differs in style and contents. With the new NSS, the US is clearly turning inwards. The Western Hemisphere is being mentioned 13 times compared to four times in the 2017 NSS. The new document explicitly mentions narco-terrorists and the use of lethal force in defeating cartels. Monroe doctrine is also explicitly mentioned.
As the US focus shifts to the Western Hemisphere, its interest towards other regions is changing shape. Some have called the new NSS to mark the end of the great power rivalry with China. We disagree and think that the rivalry is still very much there, though the wording is more subtle this time. The new NSS focuses much more on geoeconomics than on geopolitics, and US strategic autonomy is at the core of it. Taiwan is mentioned more often than in the previous NSS, but the importance of the island is almost entirely linked to its role in semiconductor production. Defending the First Island Chain remains a US priority, but the US insists its allies in Asia do much more for collective defence.
The media has broadly covered how the new NSS despises Europe, unsurprisingly, some might say at this point. In fact, the liberal Europe seems to be the new adversary of the Trump-era US.
In our regional sections, we discuss Ukraine’s revised peace proposal that is soon to be presented to the US. In Middle East, we focus on the Israeli announcement of a new border line in Gaza, an act clearly violating the terms of the ceasefire deal. In under the radar, we discuss Putin’s warm reunion with Modi and the renewed flare-up between Thailand and Cambodia.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
