De ti største selskaber i USA udgør en mindre værdi på markederne end for 20 år siden, og der er færre high-tech selskaber blandt dem end for 20 år siden. Markedet er altså blevet mere jævnt fordelt, og de store selskaber tjener forholdsvis mere end for 20 år siden.
Uddrag fra J.P.Morgan:
As traditional market-cap weighted equity
indices continue to reach new all-time
highs, investors are increasingly concerned
that the bulk of returns are coming from
just a handful of mega cap companies.
Indeed, history shows higher concentration
in fewer names can lead to equity market
bubbles and subsequent large drawdowns
as experienced during the ’00-’01 tech
bubble.
However, while concentration risk
is worth monitoring, returns attributable to
these companies are, in part, justified given
they are contributing a greater share to
overall earnings, yet account for less of the
index’s overall market cap. As highlighted
in this week’s chart, the top 10 companies
in the S&P 500 currently make up 22.7% of
the index’s market value, relative to 25.2%
in 1999, yet accounted for roughly 18% of
earnings generated last year, relative to
14% in 1999.
Moreover, these mega cap
companies are more evenly distributed
across sectors, suggesting more stable
earnings: today, only three technology
companies are in the top 10, compared to
six in 1999. Given this, while it may be
appropriate to lock in some gains achieved
by these large companies, investors should
take comfort in the fact that these mega
caps are “pulling their weight” with respect
to earnings and focus on striking an
appropriate balance between risk and
protection in the later stages of an expansion.
