Fra Danske Bank:
Overview: Realized inflation landed close to forecasts in February, but sharply rising energy prices have since lifted short-term inflation expectations especially in the euro area. Oil futures curve remains in steep backwardation, as markets expect the supply shortage to ease relatively quickly. European natural gas prices are priced to remain at an elevated level towards next winter, while US prices have remained much more stable.
Inflation expectations: Euro area’s 2026 inflation expectations have jumped to about 2.8%, while 1y1y and 2y2y remain anchored around 2%. US short-term expectations have also risen, but more modestly. The first consumer survey partially covering the war will be released from Univ. of Michigan on 13 March.
US: February CPI landed close to expectations in both headline (2.4% y/y) and core (2.5% y/y) terms. Tariff-driven costs lifted food and core goods inflation, housing inflation remained steady and non-housing services inflation cooled after a spike in January – all largely as expected. While gasoline prices will naturally put upward pressure on energy inflation, we still expect core CPI to average only 2.5% in 2026, which should allow the Fed to resume rate cuts from June if the uncertainty eases.
Euro area: In February, headline inflation surprised at 1.9% y/y (cons 1.7%) as core rose to 2.4% y/y (cons 2.2%) on a one-off from Italian services inflation linked to the Olympic Games. Excluding this, underlying momentum was similar to recent months. The war in Iran has pushed energy prices higher, and market-based inflation expectations now average around 2.8% y/y for the rest of 2026. Medium-term expectations are still close to 2%. In the base case we expect the rising energy prices to be temporary with limited pass-through to core inflation.
China: February CPI inflation rebounded from 0.2% y/y to 1.3% y/y. Core CPI was up 1.8% y/y from 0.8% y/y in January. Chinese New Year boosted prices temporarily in February, but we do see signs deflationary pressures are easing. PPI deflation has also come to an end with the fifth positive m/m change in a row.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
