“The US-China AI and geopolitical power race and global energy supply waves drive our key convictions. Commodity indices have delivered strong total returns in 2025 (e.g. BCOM 15%) because very strong returns in industrial and especially precious metals, which both tend to benefit from Fed cuts, have outweighed modestly negative returns in energy. Our cyclical macro base case of sturdy global GDP growth and 50bp of Fed rate cuts in 2026 is again supportive of topdown commodity returns. However, we believe that two major structural trends will drive the outlook for commodities, with a base case where commodity index returns moderate (Exhibit 15), but with again significant return differentiation across commodities and relative value opportunities.”
Morten W. Langer
