Uddrag fra yahoo finance og Goldman
“Our analysis of historical G10 episodes suggests that although strong economic momentum limits the risk in the near-term, the policy tightening we expect raises the odds of recession. As a result, we now see the odds of a recession as roughly 15% in the next 12 months and 35% within the next 24 months,” said Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist, in a new note to clients.
Eleven out of 14 tightening cycles since World War II have been followed by a recession within two years, warns Hatzius.
Added Hatzius, “Taken at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a narrow path to a soft landing as it aims to close the jobs-workers gap and bring inflation back towards its 2% target.”
Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank’s Matthew Luzzetti became the first economist from a major Wall Street firm to predict a U.S. recession. Others such as Goldman have since piled on.
The warnings come at a precarious time for the U.S. economy.
Inflation readings continue to run red-hot as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and deals with soaring prices for energy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for March recently showed a worrying 11.2% advancer spanning the past 12 months.
