| Braced for recession, not depression |
| “Recession, 11% expect a challenging recession. The equity market has already priced an economic slowdown, but not a full recession. The performance of Cyclicals (ex-commodities) vs. Defensives has closely tracked the path of economic growth. Defensives have outperformed Cyclicals YTD and currently trade at a level more consistent with an ISM around 51 rather than this week’s reading of 56. The relative performance suggests equity investors have already braced for a slowdown in activity, but not a deep contraction” |
 Goldman |
