Goldman Sachs kommer med en negativ prognose for alle investorer. Mens amwrikanske aktier i det seneste årti har givet et gennemsnitligt afkast på 14 pct., så bliver afkastet meget lavere i det næste årti, forudser banken. Det skyldes en forventet lavere indtjening og effekten af en de-globalisering.
The Next Decade
US equities posted an annualized return of 14% in the last decade, benefiting from an extended period of US preeminence in economic growth.
In the next decade we expect growth to be relatively scarce, and for trends of de-globalization to pressure earnings.
As the chart shows, elevated CAPE ratios have historically indicated lower future returns. At today’s multiple of 29x, which has occurred <1% of the time, total returns have averaged 6%.
