Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:
Back in December 17, when SpaceX was worth only $800 billion based on private market transactions, we published a report looking at the up and coming (or rather, going) space economy, titled “Data Centers In Space Are Coming: Here’s How To Profit” in which we profiled a handful of companies with the highest exposure to, well, space – among which PL, RKLB, LUNR and others – and told readers so inclined to create a basket of the names ahead of the SpaceX IPO in order to frontrun the euphoria. 6 months later, the “space basket” outperformed the Mag 7 by 80% (and as much as 120%).
But for those who missed the trade, another opportunity is opening up, this time one which focuses on Asia instead of the US.
As Goldman trader Alvin So writes in a note published by the bank’s Asia Strategy Basket , there is “a compelling relative risk/reward in Asia Space Economy stocks, supported by structural demand, measurable earnings delivery, policy support, and under-positioned thematic flows.”
Background
The Space Economy is in an active deployment phase. Satellite launches reached 4,400+ in 2025 (+65% YoY), with ~70,000 additional satellites targeted over the next five years. The low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite market is projected to expand seven-fold to $108bn by 2035. Sovereign constellation programs are already in funded execution through 2028, providing non-discretionary demand independent of end-user adoption.
While SpaceX has understandably stolen the “space spotlight” with its recent IPO, Asia’s role in the global supply chain is critical. Asia represents the hardware backbone of the global buildout, spanning satellite buses and payloads, rocket engines, RF/GNSS chips, phased-array antennas, earth observation instruments, and in-orbit servicing. China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and India occupy distinct but complementary positions across the value chain, supported by contracted order books and government-backed programs.
Theme broadening, with AI convergence extending duration. Orbital AI compute is moving into procurement in 2026, driven by terrestrial energy and permitting constraints. The linkage to AI infrastructure capex broadens the investment case and extends the duration of the theme beyond pure space deployment.
Thematic flows are accelerating. Global space-themed funds and ETF AUM have reached ~$25bn at peak across 40+ products, up from only ~$1bn at the beginning of 2025. However, Asia supply chain companies remain structurally underrepresented, creating a clear gap between positioning and fundamentals.
Structural Investment Opportunity: Goldman has introduced the Asia Space Economy basket (BBG ticker GSSZSPCE), focused on companies with direct or supply chain exposure across four categories: (1) Upstream — Launch & Propulsion, (2) Satellite Manufacturing & Components, (3) Ground Segment & Downstream Applications, and (4) Space-Grade Materials & Electronics. The basket has outperformed broader markets since 2025, while trading in a consolidation range over the past 3 months.
Valuation and earnings support an attractive risk/reward. Asia Space Economy stocks are trading at deep discounts to global peers (‑60% P/E; ‑25% P/B), with relative valuations near the low end of the historical range, despite supportive earnings momentum, suggesting fundamentals are not yet fully reflected in pricing.
Lift‑Off to a New Growth Frontier
The Space Economy: Scale and TAM Growth
The Satellite Industry Association (SIA)’s Annual State of the Satellite Industry Report estimates the global space economy at US$429bn in 2025 (+3% YoY), including US$303bn in revenues across the commercial satellite value chain.
Deployment activity continues to accelerate: 4,434 satellites were launched in 2025 (+65% YoY), bringing the total number of operational satellites to 14,266. Within the value chain, commercial launch revenues grew 33% to US$12.4bn, satellite manufacturing reached US$20.4bn, and satellite ground network revenues increased 8% to US$165bn.
Looking ahead, with ~70,000 satellites targeted for launch over the next five years, Goldman’s equity analysts forecast the LEO satellite market to expand 7× to US$108bn by 2035, implying a ~20% CAGR over 2024–35E. In upside scenarios, the TAM could double in a bull case and potentially quadruple in a blue-sky scenario.
Broader industry estimates point to a similarly large opportunity set. The World Economic Forum and McKinsey project the overall space economy to reach US$1.8tn by 2035, while Novaspace estimates the market could exceed US$1tn by 2034. Multiple programs are now competing for this TAM, with Asia’s supply chain manufacturers positioned to benefit across the deployment cycle.
The Asia opportunity is centered on manufacturing but also extends across a broader economic footprint, including connectivity, earth observation, logistics, climate and agriculture analytics, and digital infrastructure. Deloitte and the Singapore Space & Technology Think Tank estimate that earth observation services alone could contribute ~US$100bn to ASEAN GDP by 2030.
Space Economy Value Chain — Core Revenue vs. Emerging Opportunities
The distinction between core/established and early-growth/emerging segments is important in assessing exposure to the theme. Core positioning should be anchored in contracted, revenue-generating segments, while emerging areas are better viewed as optionality.
The value chain is mapped across time horizons, growth profiles, and Asia’s role in the supply chain:
Core / Established
- Launch Vehicles: The key enabler. Reusability-driven cost declines have unlocked downstream scale. Asia has the broadest non-US launch base, spanning China (state and private), Japan (H3), and India (ISRO and emerging private players).
- Satellite Manufacturing: Strongest order book visibility, with sovereign constellations anchoring non-discretionary demand. China leads on scale and integration; Japan on precision systems; Korea is scaling production; Taiwan specializes in subsystems and components; India remains early but is ramping rapidly.
- Ground Electronics & Infrastructure: The largest segment and most direct volume lever. Satellite deployment mechanically drives hardware demand with limited execution risk. Taiwan dominates RF/GNSS and phased-array components, while Korea and Japan supply network and ground systems.
- Earth Observation & Data Services: The most mature downstream segment, supported by recurring data revenues. Japan and India anchor supply; Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing demand market, with Singapore serving as the regional hub.
- LEO Satellite Connectivity / Broadband: The clearest near-term monetization pathway. Maritime and aviation lead adoption given meaningful cost advantages versus legacy services. Asia Pacific is a key growth market, with Taiwan, Korea, and Japan supplying core connectivity hardware.
Early-Growth / Emerging
- Space Sustainability / In-Orbit Services: Structurally non-discretionary, as LEO congestion scales with deployment. Japan holds a near-monopoly position globally in commercial in-orbit servicing.
- Orbital AI Compute / Space Data Centers: Moving into early-stage procurement in 2026, driven by terrestrial energy and permitting constraints. The linkage to AI capex broadens investor relevance. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are the key hardware beneficiaries.
- Direct-to-Device / Connected Mobility: Evolving from a niche to an integrated connectivity layer. 6G standardization is expected to embed D2D structurally. China leads in EV integration, while Taiwan, Korea, and Japan supply core components.
- Space Pharma / Microgravity Manufacturing: Scientifically validated but commercially early-stage. Regulatory frameworks remain nascent. Asia’s role is currently focused on launch access and payload return logistics (India and Japan), with long-duration optionality.
Asia Supply Chain — Distinct Market Exposures
The opportunity is framed as geographically diversified but thematically coherent, with each market offering differentiated exposure across the value chain:
- China, Japan, and Korea — High exposure: Positioned upstream across launch, satellite manufacturing, and system integration, where contract values are highest and visibility is multi-year. China’s ramp is largely non-discretionary through 2028, driven by ITU filing timelines. Japan adds a differentiated sustainability angle (e.g. Astroscale), while Korea is building toward commercial scale with a more integrated model across launch, manufacturing, and data.
- Taiwan — Moderate to high exposure: Positioned in ground electronics, the largest segment by revenue. Established supply chain relationships with global constellation operators provide relatively low execution risk, though exposure is further downstream.
- India — Moderate exposure: Reflects a sector still in early commercial scale-up, but with a broad three-pillar opportunity set over the next 3-5 years.
- ASEAN/Singapore — Low to moderate exposure: Primarily a demand market and regional hub today, with potential for incremental manufacturing exposure over time as supply chains reallocate.
In parallel, sovereign programs are moving into funded execution, including Japan’s JPY1tn Space Strategy Fund, Korea’s KRW200bn private space fund, India’s IN-SPACe VC facility, and Singapore’s NSAS.
Investor Flows and Thematic Positioning
Space-themed funds have seen meaningful inflows since 2015 (+US$19bn), with aggregate AUM reaching US$25bn at peak across 40+ funds globally, up from ~US$1bn at the beginning of 2025. Among the top 10 funds by AUM, six are ETFs, accounting for roughly 50% of assets in the theme. Recent ETF launches by multiple asset managers reflect growing institutional demand for dedicated exposure. That said, flows remain concentrated in US-listed names. Asia supply chain companies remain underrepresented in global thematic allocations and index benchmarks — a structural gap that represents a key source of potential alpha for Asia beneficiaries.
Over the medium to longer term, continued sovereign program execution, convergence with AI infrastructure, and increasing institutional participation should support sustained investor interest across the space economy value chain.
Asia Space Economy Basket (GSSZSPCE)
Goldman’s Asia Space Economy (GSSZSPCE) basket comprises companies with direct or supply chain exposure to the space economy, across four business categories:
- Upstream — Launch & Propulsion,
- Satellite Manufacturing & Components,
- Ground Segment & Downstream Applications, and
- Space-Grade Materials & Electronics.
The basket includes 53 constituents, with 4, 16, 18, and 15 stocks in each segment, respectively, contributing 16% /40% / 26% / 18% of basket weight.
Asia Space Economy stocks have delivered meaningful outperformance vs. broader regional markets since 2025, led by Korea and Taiwan names. The rally was most pronounced in late 2025, with performance subsequently consolidating. At the segment level, Satellite Manufacturing & Components has been the clear outperformer, reflecting strong order book visibility and direct exposure to the constellation deployment ramp. Upstream — Launch & Propulsion saw a sharp run-up into February, followed by a pullback, while Ground Segment & Downstream Applications has lagged, suggesting markets are prioritizing near-term earnings delivery, with volume-driven downstream plays yet to re-rate.
Earnings momentum remains supportive, with Asia Space Economy stocks continuing to deliver positive growth and upward revisions, led by Japan and Korea, partially offset by weaker trends in China. Valuations remain compelling for Asia Space Economy stocks, which are trading at deep P/E (-60%) and P/B (-25%) discounts to global peers, with relative valuations near the low end of the historical range.
During April–May, Asia supply chain names underperformed global peers after tracking broadly in line earlier in the year. This divergence is seen as flow-driven, with strong inflows into space-themed ETFs disproportionately benefiting globally listed names, perhaps as a result of SpaceX frontrunning. Relative performance has rebounded since June, as US peers likely faced liquidity drag, while Asian stocks remain structurally supported as beneficiaries outside the US.
This dislocation is creating a compelling relative risk/reward opportunity for Asia supply chain exposures, supported by a constructive fundamental backdrop.
Asia Space Economy Basket (GSSZSPCE)
Universe: Asia-listed equities with 6M average daily value traded (ADTV) > US$5mn.
Selection Criteria: Stocks with exposure to the defined Space Economy business categories, based on RBICS sub-industry classifications indicating direct space or satellite-related activity, verified supplier or customer linkages to key rocket and satellite operators, disclosed contracts or product-level exposure to space-related component manufacturing, demonstrable correlation to major global space economy stocks, and confirmed, material or growing revenue exposure to the theme.
Space Economy Business Categories
(1) Upstream — Launch & Propulsion: Design, manufacture, and operation of launch systems and deep-space infrastructure.
- Launch Vehicles & Integration: Orbital launch vehicle primes, commercial launch services, payload integration, fairing structures, and reusable systems
- Propulsion & Attitude Control: Liquid and solid rocket engines, upper-stage propulsion, thrusters, and Attitude & Orbit Control System (AOCS) hardware
- Lunar & Deep-Space Transport: Commercial lunar landers, payload delivery services, and crewed/uncrewed deep-space infrastructure
(2) Satellite Manufacturing & Components: Design, assembly, and in-orbit servicing of spacecraft and their subsystems.
- Satellite Platforms & Payloads: Small, micro, and nano-satellite buses; SAR and optical imaging payloads; RF transponders and communication payloads; AOCS; and onboard computers
- Orbital Services: Active debris removal, life-extension servicing, and end-of-life deorbiting
(3) Ground Segment & Downstream Applications: Infrastructure and services connecting space assets to end-users and commercial markets.
- Satellite Operators: Commercial operators of GEO and LEO communication fleets, including transponder leasing and managed SatCom services
- Ground Equipment & Terminals: Satellite terminals, gateway antennas, modems, RF front-end components, TT&C systems, and NTN/D2D connectivity modules
- Earth Observation & Navigation Services: Satellite imagery analytics, GIS platforms, GNSS/BDS chipsets and positioning services, SSA, and SatCom network integration
(4) Space-Grade Materials & Electronics: Components and materials qualified for space environments, supported by confirmed commercial applications.
- Space-Grade Electronics: Radiation-hardened semiconductors, space-qualified PCBs and HDI substrates, RF front-end chips, hermetic packages, and power conditioning units (PCUs)
- Advanced Materials: Carbon fiber composites, specialty and superalloys (nickel, titanium), high-efficiency III–V solar substrates, and thermal management materials
- Weighting Methodology: The basket is weighted based on a blended measure of free-float market cap and 6M ADTV, with max/min weights capped at 5.0%/0.5%.
The full space economy basket.
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