Goldman Sachs laver mange grafer, der i ét billede fortæller mere end 1000 ord. Nedenstående graf er en påmindelse om, at nedturen og opturen – både økonomisk og på markederne under coronakrisen – har været totalt anderledes end ved tidligere kriser, dvs. langt kraftigere. Derfor er spørgsmålet, om de voldsomme kurstigninger er holdbare. Goldman gør opmærksom på, at det er de finansielle stimuli, der har sikret opturen. Men når de forsvinder, hvad så? Markederne skal forvente stor volatilitet.
Breaking Out from the Outbreak
Equities
The scientific name of the new strain of coronavirus is SARS-CoV-2. In people, the disease caused by the virus is called COVID-19, with common symptoms of fever, fatigue, and respiratory stress.
In markets, the symptoms appear to be volatility and velocity. When compared to a composite of prior bear markets, the 2020 equity plunge and near instantaneous reversal are unparalleled.
While the deluge of monetary and fiscal policy has sustained the recovery amidst a collapse in global earnings, the handoff between policy and fundamentals will likely prove volatile.
