Uddrag fra goldman:
For much of the past 5 days, ever since the Liberation Day fiasco, markets have been desperate for some guidance and were hoping it would come from the White House. So far that has not happened (one notable fake news incident notwithstanding) even though the S&P has lost about $7 trillion in market cap in 3 trading sessions, hardly the stuff midterm election victories are made of.
So someone else decided to take the lead.
In an email blast to the firm’s trading (not research) clients, Goldman Josh Schiffrin, perhaps the most important trader on the bank’s desk who also doubles (or rather triples) as the bank’s Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Financial Risk, said that whereas he had been “negative“, he just turned “bullish” and “it’s time to start scaling in.”
Here is an excerpt from his full note:
Risk Assets: I’ve been negative, but now I’m bullish. Time to start scaling in.
- It feels terrible at the moment, but I expect this to be a temporary period and prices to be higher in 6-12 months. I think the tails are big in both directions. On one hand there is the chance for a global trade war/recession. On the other, a series of negotiations can lead to lower barriers and a strong surging rebound aided by lower taxes.
- My view is negativity is very high and these prices will prove to be an opportunity, but important to scale recognizing the enormous uncertainty. Selling out of the money puts is another reasonable strategy given high levels of vol.
We tweeted his comment around 1:10pm and since then spoos have surged about 70 points.
There is much more in the full note which is available to pro subs.
