“It’s not the size of the [trade] policy shift, but the uncertainty around it that could cause a recession… [and] at this point, policy reversals may actually worsen the situation because they would enhance uncertainty. – Paul Krugman: I don’t disagree that the uncertainty effect could inflict ongoing damage to the economy. But I do think a pullback on tariff policy would nevertheless help stabilize conditions in the near term. Jan Hatzius: There is no reason the trade policies the Administration is pursuing would need to cause a recession. On the contrary, they should produce a great deal of investment and, more broadly, better economic outcomes for America.“
Morten W. Langer
