Selv om et bear-market gør ondt på aktionærerne, så viser en graf fra Goldman Sachs, at aktierne kommer sig og tilmed får en gevinst, der er større end tabet, 12 måneder efter, at halvdelen af tabet i bear-markedet er realiseret. Gevinsterne er 3-4 gange større end tabet.
Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:
Retracing Our Steps
US equity returns historically have been asymmetric following a 50% recovery in bear markets, a threshold which was crossed earlier this month. In the 12 months following such retracements, the S&P 500 experienced significantly larger gains than losses, with downside periods averaging a modest -5% loss. While every bear market is different, the momentum of previous rebounds and a favorably skewed return profile suggest equities may sustain their rally.
Source: GS Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, and GS Asset Management.