Goldman Sachs advarer om en meget, meget høj risiko for recession i USA. Banken har i nogen tid set signaler til recession, bl.a. ved at følge renteudviklingen, men nu siger Lloyd Blankfein, der i dag er bestyrelsesformand i banken, at der er en “meget, meget høj risoko” for, at den amerikanske økonomi ender i recession. Det er en af de mest konkrete advarsler, der hidtil er set.
MARKET PRICING OF RECESSION RISK HAS MOVED HIGHER…
Market pricing of recession risk has risen, but signals have yet to flash red. The proportion of yield curve inverted across different maturities now stands at 22%, lower than the 60% observed before past recessions.
With policy tightening underway, we expect the frequency of inversions to pick up. Still, the breadth, depth, and duration of recent curve inversions have provided stronger, albeit mixed, recessionary signals.
Former Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein, now chair of the board, has warned corporate America and US consumers to be prepared for a recession as the Federal Reserve tightens policy to combat high inflation.
Speaking to CBS News on Sunday, Blankfein, said there was a “very, very high risk” that the US economy was heading towards a recession.
