Resume af teksten:
Amerikanske 10-årige statsrenter nåede 5,3 %, det højeste niveau siden 2002.
Halvdelen af 501 adspurgte investorer forventer, at renterne på 10-årige amerikanske statsobligationer stiger yderligere.
Korte og mellemlange statsobligationer beskrives som mere attraktive end lange obligationer på grund af lavere varighedsrisiko.
Aktier ventes at give bedre afkast på kort sigt, særligt inden for teknologi og kunstig intelligens.
Konkurrencen mellem kinesiske udviklere af AI-modeller intensiveres, mens fokus flyttes mod omkostninger og infrastruktur.
Kinas produktion af halvledere og efterspørgslen efter udstyr udvikler sig hurtigere end markedet ventede, men specialiserede AI-chips er fortsat begrænsede.
Amerikanske forbrugere er mere pessimistiske end vækst- og jobtal tilsiger, blandt andet i forbindelse med leveomkostninger og lavere tillid til institutioner.
Likviditeten i venturekapital er faldet, mens sekundære markeder bidrager med likviditet for investorer.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
With US Treasury yields at multi-decade highs, bonds may look more appealing to investors at first glance. But whether to allocate more to bonds depends on the investor’s time horizon , says Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of Asset Allocation within Goldman Sachs Research. Equities should deliver better near-term returns, with strong earnings growth, particularly for companies involved in technology and artificial intelligence (AI), providing a cushion if bond yields climb higher. Mueller-Glissmann notes that the optimal bond allocation over the last five years was close to 0%, as those assets posted one of their worst five-year rolling returns in a century.
Risks for bonds remain elevated given Middle East tensions and uncertainty related to inflation and central bank policy. Equity-bond correlations have been positive, with longer-duration bonds falling in tandem with stocks in many cases. Shorter- and medium-maturity government debt offers better value, yielding nearly as much as longer-term bonds with less duration risk. However, bonds may make more sense for portfolios in the longer term. The average optimal bond allocation since World War II has been 40%, consistent with a traditional 60/40 portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% fixed income. At the same time, 10-year Treasury yields of 5.3% are higher than the 250-year average of 4.7%. That said, Mueller-Glissmann expects conditions to be less favorable for the 60/40 portfolio than they were in the pre-Covid era. Instead of a pure 60/40 split, investors may benefit from higher allocations to technology stocks, as well as from investment in real assets, inflation-linked bonds, factor investing, and alternative investments such as hedge funds and private equity. Read the full article for more on Goldman Sachs Research’s outlook for portfolios amid rising bond yields.
Competition Among China’s AI Models Is Intensifying as the Chip Sector Advances
Allen Chang (left) and Ronald Keung of Goldman Sachs Research at the Goldman Sachs Asia Leaders Conference in Hong Kong
Competition among China’s leading AI model developers is intensifying, raising questions among investors on the sustainability of leadership in model performance, says Ronald Keung , head of the Asia Internet Research team. Attention is increasingly shifting to cost efficiencies and the “harness layer”—the data, workflows, and infrastructure that house and enable AI models, Keung said following the Goldman Sachs Asia Leaders Conference. The event featured companies that form the entire AI supply chain: 400 companies were represented and over 1,400 investors attended the event in Hong Kong. Investors are also focused on the development of China’s semiconductor sector, says Allen Chang, head of the Greater China Technology Research team. He notes that capacity expansion by China’s leading foundries and growth expectations for semiconductor equipment providers are advancing faster than the market anticipated. However, constraints remain, particularly in the availability of specialized chips for AI computing. In the meantime, Chinese open-weight AI models are increasingly being adopted around the world, Keung says, including through deployment on Western hyperscaler cloud platforms. This could allow broader use while keeping data and computing within local jurisdictions. Read more from Goldman Sachs Research , following the second annual Goldman Sachs Asia Leaders Conference in Hong Kong, the firm’s largest client gathering in the region.
Marquee Poll: Investors Expect Treasury Yields to Keep Rising
Government bonds in developed markets have had a turbulent start to October, with 10-year US Treasury yields touching 5.3% this week, their highest level since 2002. And investors don’t expect Treasury yields to ease soon, according to a survey of 501 Goldman Sachs clients conducted from September 30-October 2. Half of the respondents think the yield on 10-year Treasuries will increase, compared with 36% who expect it to fall and 14% who expect yields to remain in their current range.
That said, the proportion of respondents expecting yields to rise was down somewhat from September, when the survey recorded one of the most bearish views on Treasuries since the Marquee QuickPoll started in 2016. Respondents were upbeat on US stocks, with 52% saying they were “bullish” or “slightly bullish” on the S&P compared with 30% who described themselves as “bearish” or “slightly bearish.” Asked what events and risks they are most focused on in October, the largest groups of respondents said they are watching geopolitics (38%) and US economic data (37%). Find more of our insights on markets .
Why US Consumers Are Downbeat Despite a Strong Economy
Cost-of-living pressures are weighing on US households. However, Americans feel worse about the economy than growth and jobs numbers suggest they should. A key reason may be declining trust in US institutions ranging from science to education, explains Joseph Briggs , who co-leads the global economics team within Goldman Sachs Research.
Data show a gap between consumer survey results and the sentiment levels economic models would predict. This gap may stem in part from cost-of-living pressures, which are most acutely felt by low-income households. Still, across wealth, income, political party, or even social media use, sentiment is depressed. Americans have become more downbeat overall, surveys show, and Goldman Sachs Research finds that financial dissatisfaction is less a contributor than institutional distrust. “So as long as consumer sentiment doesn’t really reflect sentiment about the economy,” Briggs says, “well, it probably won’t be a very useful tool for economic analysis.” Find more of our insights on the global economy .
How Venture Capital Is Reviving Liquidity
Hans Swildens, partner in Goldman Sachs Asset & Wealth Management
“The secondary market—and every other market—is sometimes bigger than the primary market… I always had an inner feeling that this market could be a lot bigger than people thought.” —Hans Swildens, partner in Goldman Sachs Asset & Wealth Management Liquidity in venture capital has declined as companies stay private longer and funds make fewer distributions to their investors. Swildens, founder of Industry Ventures, explains how venture capital’s secondary market is providing critical liquidity for the industry, how AI is reshaping tech portfolios, and why he decided to combine his firm with Goldman Sachs after a 20-year partnership. Swildens spoke with Michael Brandmeyer, global head and CIO of the External Investing Group within Goldman Sachs Asset Management, on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors podcast .
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
