Resume af teksten:
Guldpriserne har fået en stærk start i 2026 efter en betydelig stigning i 2025. Anshul Sehgal fra Goldman Sachs mener, at centralbankers skift fra US-dollar til guld primært driver dette. Den lille andel af spekulanter på guldområdet betyder, at centralbankers handlinger kan have stor indflydelse på priserne. Sehgal anbefaler, at der investeres i både aktier og guld som en del af en diversificeret portefølje.
I teknologisektoren ser Nicola Gifford afviste boblebekymringer og pegede på fundamentale faktorer som den primære årsag til den nuværende stigning. Sammenlignet med dot-com æraens vækst, er dagens stigning mere begrundet i reelle indtægter og dividender.
Edward Fishman fremhævede, hvordan geopolitisk konkurrence ændrer den globale økonomiske orden ved at udnytte økonomiske chokepunkter. Dette indebærer en risiko for virksomheder, der skal navigere mellem markedsincitamenter og regeringspåvirkninger.
Tysklands økonomi ventes at vokse med 1,1% i år, drevet af fiskalpolitik og stabilisering i fremstillingssektoren. Dog udfordres økonomien af en aldrende befolkning og kinesisk konkurrence, på trods af at fremstillingssektoren har stabiliseret sig lidt.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Gold has capped off a huge 2025 rally with a blazing start to 2026. While prices declined in early trading on Friday, Anshul Sehgal, global co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, says the precious metal could continue to rise. The main driver of the move has been global central banks’ shift from the US dollar to precious metals, Sehgal says. “These are tiny markets compared to global stocks or fixed income, so the smallest change in demand makes prices go parabolic,” Sehgal says on this week’s episode of The Markets podcast .
He says that only about 5% of the world’s gold is currently held by speculators. “If a central bank decides they want to pivot away from the dollar and own more gold, that is going to move the price quite violently. Which is what we’re observing.” For this reason, Sehgal is skeptical of arguments that gold is currently being driven by speculative mania. “We think this is a multi-decade trajectory,” he says. He adds that gold “barely moved” from 2010 to 2020 even as growth-oriented stocks surged, which means the recent move can partially be categorized as a catch-up. “Do we expect gold to continue to appreciate exponentially as it has? No. But we’re not fussed about there being a lot of froth when it comes to precious metals,” he says. In fact, he recommends that investors own both equities and gold (rather than equities and fixed income) in a refreshed version of a barbell portfolio.
What US Tech Earnings Tell Us About Bubble Risks
Fears of a bubble in the public equity technology sector may be unfounded, according to Nicola Gifford of the Wealth Management Investment Strategy Group. To explain why, Gifford compares the S&P 500 technology sector’s total returns in the year just before the dot-com bubble burst, between 1999-2000, to returns over the past year. The 94% return in the dot-com period is much higher than the magnitude of returns over the past year at 24%.
Importantly, exuberant valuation gains were the primary driver of the 94% return in 1999-2000, while the share of returns generated from fundamentals, which are earnings and dividends, were relatively low. That stands in contrast to returns last year, where fundamentals more than accounted for gains in the technology sector amid valuation compression. This indicates that “today’s tech rally is fundamentally driven,” Gifford explains. “If one definition of a bubble is when equity prices become unjustifiably disconnected from fundamentals,” Gifford says, “we’re not seeing that in the tech sector right now.”
Why Economic Chokepoints Are Reshaping Statecraft
The world’s longstanding system of economic cooperation has been upended by geopolitical competition, which has returned “with a vengeance,” according to Edward Fishman, a senior fellow and director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Fishman recently shared the implications of this development in a Q&A with the Goldman Sachs Global Institute : The trust that underpinned globalization has broken down in recent years: The global order is now being powerfully reshaped by geopolitical competition targeting economic chokepoints—areas where one country holds a dominant position and substitutes are scant. Examples of these chokepoints include the US’s commanding lead in advanced semiconductor design and its dominance in global banking, and China’s controlling share of rare-earth mineral production. These chokepoints have become potent tools of economic statecraft because they can be wielded unilaterally and without military force. As geopolitical competition intensifies, countries around the world are now engaged in a scramble for economic security, racing to identify and shore up their most dangerous external dependencies. While these efforts are likely to ease some of today’s most prominent chokepoints, new ones may emerge in the years ahead in areas such as the market for cloud services, AI models and algorithms, or clean energy technology. At the same time, economic statecraft is actively reshaping the commercial environment and increasing business risks around supply chains, capital structures, and technology platforms. Even those companies who control an economic chokepoint may be exposed to significant risk, as they are caught between market incentives and government efforts to deploy their assets as instruments of geoeconomic power. In case you missed it: Listen to Chairman and CEO David Solomon’s take on AI and dealmaking for the year ahead.
Germany Is Forecast to Escape Six Years of Economic Stagnation
The German economy is poised to grow by 1.1% this year, Goldman Sachs Research economist Niklas Garnadt writes in the team’s report. The anticipated expansion is driven by a shift in fiscal policy that is boosting domestic demand as the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilizing.
• Manufacturing’s economic value added peaked in 2017 and has declined 7% since then. While manufacturing appears to have stabilized, it’s under pressure from Chinese competition. • Germany’s fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 3.7% this year and 3.9% in 2027, the highest levels outside of a recession in decades. • While the forecasted growth is above Germany’s potential growth rate of 0.5%, the economy still faces hurdles, including an aging population that constrains labor supply. Read more of our insights on the global economy.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
