Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:
With earnings set to being next week, investors are thinking beyond mere fundamentals (which in recent years have barely mattered) and shifting their attention to technicals and positioning. By which we mean hedge fund and/or retail crowding in the most popular names. And sure enough, as Goldman writes in its latest Hedge Funds Crowding Monitor note, “US sector crowding is evolving rapidly beneath the surface.“
As Goldman trader Kartik Singhal writes, Energy and Healthcare Equipment have seen among the largest directional rotations this week – both shifting decisively toward consensus longs, while Semis positioning intensifies on both the long and short side.
Below, the Goldman trading desk highlights the key US crowding movements:
- Energy long crowding increased significantly to 0.48 from 0.03 (94th percentile), while the short side simultaneously unwound from crowded to uncrowded, falling to −0.39 from 0.11 (1st percentile) – a clear directional rotation into consensus longs (see Exhibits 2 and 4).
- Semi & Semi Equipment long crowding continued to build, rising to 0.43 from 0.35 (94th percentile over the trailing six-month period), while short crowding flipped to crowded at 0.29 from −0.01, positioning pressure building on both sides (see Exhibits 2 and 5).
- Health Care Equipment & Services long crowding has turned positive to 0.15 from −0.13, crowded now from uncrowded (98th percentile), one of the largest directional shifts across sectors. Hedge funds have simultaneously covered shorts as short crowding has moved to −0.40 from −0.25, now even more uncrowded .
- High Momentum Winners long crowding has eased to 0.83 from 0.96, crowded but less (70th percentile of the trailing six-month range). Short crowding has moved to −0.14 from −0.26, still uncrowded but less (50th percentile), suggesting some profit-taking on the long side.
- China Sales Exposure long crowding has risen to 0.51 from 0.40, now even more crowded (96th percentile), among the highest six-month percentile across all themes. Short crowding remains near flat at 0.06 vs. 0.08 (see Exhibit 6).
Crowding scores are expressed as sigma/z-scores, measuring the number of standard deviations from the mean, and typically range from −2 to +2. A score above 0 indicates crowded positioning, while a score above +1 indicates highly crowded positioning.
Excerpting further from the note, here are the key visuals starting with the summary crowding monitor.
Sector Crowding: Long & Short Side
Thematic Crowding: Long & Short Side
Sector Long Crowding: 6-Month Historical Comparison
Sector Short Crowding: 6-Month Historical Comparison
Thematic Long Crowding: 6-Month Historical Comparison
Thematic Short Crowding: 6-Month Historical Comparison
More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs
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