Resume af teksten:
Amerikansk inflation i oktober var højere end ventet og har øget muligheden for en renteforhøjelse på 50 basispoint i december.
Rentemarkedet indregner fortsat en forhøjelse på 25 basispoint, mens 10-årige amerikanske statsrenter ventes under 5,3 procent uden markant højere vækstforventninger.
Kreditmarkeder i nye økonomier har ifølge Anupam Damani vist modstandskraft efter årets stigning i oliepriserne.
Brasiliens offentlige underskud udgør 9,5 procent af BNP og ventes at overstige 8 procent af BNP årligt i Lula da Silvas periode.
Brasiliens centralbank fastholdt 4. november styringsrenten på 13,75 procent.
Inflationen i Brasilien ventes til 5,3 procent i år mod centralbankens mål på 3 procent.
En analyse af 17 udviklede økonomier viser, at frivillige finanspolitiske stramninger på 1 procent af BNP i gennemsnit reducerer BNP med 0,6 procent efter fire år.
Når gældsstabiliseringsgabet overstiger fire procentpoint af BNP, er der historisk fulgt en konsolidering inden for tre år i næsten halvdelen af tilfældene.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Muhammad Qubbaj on The Markets
Higher-than-expected US inflation in October means a bumper 50-basis point hike is “on the table” at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting—but a smaller hike remains the more likely option—says Muhammad Qubbaj, co-head of North America Interest Rate Product Sales and Trading in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities. The rates market is pricing a 25 basis-point hike in December, but recent Fed communications and the hot inflation print came as “a surprise” to the market, Qubbaj says. Market expectations for a rate increase had been declining, which helped create the conditions for a sharp increase in bond yields this week following the inflation news. “ While we’re confident on the direction of which way the Fed is going, it’s about size and timing right now,” Qubbaj says on The Markets podcast . His base expectation is for 10-year Treasury yields to stay below their recent 5.3% highs unless economic growth expectations rise significantly. The specific combination of factors that drove yields to their October high is unlikely to recur, Qubbaj adds.
When bond yields rise, their impact on stocks and credit depends largely on the factors driving the increase, Qubbaj observes. If economic growth and strong company earnings drive up interest rates, then equities and credit can rally. But if higher rates are caused by concerns about the market’s ability to absorb new bond supply or the risk of holding a long-term bond rather than shorter-term alternatives, then the impact on stocks and corporate credit can be negative. Listen to the full episode for more on how markets are responding to volatility from energy prices, interest rates, and AI.
Emerging Market Credit Shows Resilience amid Energy Shock
When the Iran war sent oil prices surging this year, credit markets in the developing world absorbed the shock with newfound steadiness. This is a sign that the asset class has matured , according to Anupam Damani, co-head and senior portfolio manager of emerging markets debt at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Emerging market credit is now unrecognizable, and I mean that in a good way,” Damani says. “These bonds used to come with a crisis label, but this market is no longer monolithic. In my view, it’s become a more diverse and increasingly resilient asset class.” To be sure, emerging market bonds run the gamut in terms of risk, and investors must be selective about what they trade in a marketplace with myriad issuers, she says. But a market once defined as a “risk-on, risk-off trade” has become more diverse, Damani says. The sovereign universe encompasses more than 80 countries and is supported by deeper local-currency markets, stronger reserve buffers, and more credible inflation-policy frameworks. There is also a fast-growing corporate segment of globally competitive issuers. Financial data from issuers has become more standardized to international norms. And the US dollar constraint has loosened as issuers lean on local currencies, as well as euros and renminbi for bonds. “Returns are increasingly driven by fundamentals and valuations,” Damani says. Read the full article on emerging market credit.
Brazil ’ s Fiscal Deficit Takes Center Stage After Lula’s Win
Investors are focusing on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ’ s approach to public finances for South America’s biggest economy following his unexpected re-election as president of Brazil last month, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The public-sector fiscal deficit is running at 9.5% of GDP and is on track to exceed 8% of GDP every year of Lula ’ s four-year term, says Alberto Ramos, head of the Latin America Economic Research team. That means the public sector must borrow 8% of GDP annually from domestic or foreign markets, with knock-on effects on growth, interest rates, and credit spreads. “ Lula ’ s re-election was a big surprise to market consensus, and it will be important to have specific, credible measures of spending containment,” Ramos says. “Investors will be looking for measures that improve the fiscal baseline. ” On November 4, the central bank paused its rate-normalization cycle and held the benchmark at 13.75%. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts inflation of 5.3% this year, well above the central bank’s 3% target, while GDP growth is projected at 1.6% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027. The silver lining is commodities. Soybean, iron ore, and oil exports underpin a trade surplus of $80-$90 billion and anchor a moderate current-account deficit. Investors now await Lula’s pick for finance minister for signals on spending discipline, Ramos says. Read more of our insights on financial markets .
The Key Number for Analyzing Government Deficits: Four Percentage Points
When governments do not voluntarily rein in public spending, markets often force a consolidation which is ultimately more painful, according to Goldman Sachs Research. An analysis of actions to reduce deficits in 17 developed-market economies shows that every 1% of GDP of discretionary tightening—when a government proactively chooses the consolidation—lowers GDP by an average of 0.6% after four years. Consolidations of the same size driven by market stress or by the government complying with binding fiscal rules—the two often overlap—have a bigger GDP impact, at 0.8% and 1%, respectively. “Since market-driven consolidations are usually much larger, they have in aggregate the most negative impact on growth,” write economists Johan Allen and Joseph Briggs, who leads the Global Economics team, in a report. Historically, a sharp rise in interest rates combined with a large debt-stabilizing gap—the distance between a government’s primary balance and the level that keeps debt/GDP stable—has signaled that consolidation is likely. When the debt-stabilizing gap has exceeded four percentage points of GDP, as it does today in France, the US, and the UK, a consolidation has followed within three years almost half the time. “Still, our country economists do not forecast meaningful developed-market-wide fiscal consolidation in 2027,” Allen and Briggs write. France appears the most likely candidate for consolidation, given its large debt-stabilizing gap and sharp rise in bond yields. But their base case expectation is that the French deficit exceeds 5% in 2027 before declining in 2028. Read more of our insights on macroeconomics .
Quoted: The Investor Playbook for Building Winning Sports Teams
Nicole Pullen Ross on Goldman Sachs Exchanges
“Ultimately, every investor in a sports team is most interested in winning, and so all of the investment that they can make that will help the team become more valuable allows them to invest more in their players and increase their opportunity for winning.” —Nicole Pullen Ross, lead of Sports and Entertainment Solutions in Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management Sports franchises are receiving a boost from an influx of institutional capital and soaring media rights valuations. But with the average US stadium now costing around $1.7 billion to construct, building a new venue is “a big decision” for sports investors, Pullen Ross observes on the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast. She explores how new technologies, increased personalization, and international expansion are creating new business opportunities for sports franchises as investors seek every edge for their teams. In a new report , read how Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management clients are allocating capital amid a changing philanthropic landscape driven by government debt, demographics, and AI.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
