“Immigration to the US is expected to fall from the elevated levels of the past three years, declining to a pace slightly below the pre-pandemic average, according to Goldman Sachs Research. If that occurs, the impact on the economy is likely to be limited, though more significant restrictions on immigration by the Trump administration could have larger repercussions. Net immigration is expected to slow to 750,000 per year, well below the pace of the last three years but only moderately below the normal pre-pandemic pace, Goldman Sachs Research economists Elsie Peng, David Mericle, and Alec Phillips write in the team’s report. In their baseline estimate, the GDP impact from changes in immigration is likely to be limited: The slower pace of immigration would contribute 30-40 basis points less to potential US GDP growth than the 2023-2024 pace, but it would be just 5 basis points less than the pre-pandemic pace.”
Morten W. Langer
