Goldman Sachs venter, at økonomien i industrilandene rejser sig meget kraftigt i 3. kvartal, hvorefter væksten flader ud. Udviklingen ser dramatisk ud, når den måles på kvartalsbasis. Men målt på årsbasis kommer den samlede økonomi dog ikke over nul før engang i det nye år.
Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:
Deep and Steep
GROWTH
The NBER has declared an official end to the ~11 year long US expansion and a start of a recession in February. Based on macro data, this reflects the deepest global contraction since WWII.
While there may be early signs that the economy has already exited the recession, historical guides may have limited usefulness today as COVID-19 uncertainty remains high.
We expect a steep growth acceleration in the near-term with growth normalization to follow after Q3 2020.