Resume af teksten:
Renterne i udviklede markeder er steget på grund af frygt for stigende inflation siden krigen i Iran begyndte. Centralbanker signalerer stramning af pengepolitikken, men historisk set sænkes renterne efter oliepris-chok. Goldman Sachs Research forudser en 220% stigning i datacenteres energiforbrug inden 2030, drevet af behov for kunstig intelligens (AI). Kreditmarkedet oplever usikkerhed med rekordhøj investor-pessimisme ifølge en ny undersøgelse. Befragede investorer forventer udvidelse af kreditspreads og rangerer kredit som favoritten for kortsalg. Privatkapitalsektoren er over tid blevet mere branchefokuseret, ifølge New Mountain Capitals grundlægger. Desuden kan Hormuz-strædets forstyrrelser drive landbrugspriserne op, især på grund af stigende omkostninger til kvælstofgødning. Regionspecifikke påvirkninger af kornmarkedet forventes, med størst risiko for Europa og Australien.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Interest rates in developed markets have jumped amid fears of rising inflation since the start of the war in Iran. But while markets may be right to expect tighter monetary policy initially, history suggests that supply-driven oil price shocks lower policy rates beyond the short term. The impact of a shock to oil supply on rates has historically been ambiguous, according to Dominic Wilson, a senior advisor in the Global Markets Research Group. Rising oil prices drive up inflation, but they also tend to weigh on economic growth, which complicates the job of central banks. “The average historical experience shows slightly higher policy rates in the first one-to-three months after an oil supply shock and lower policy rates six-to-nine months out as growth worries weigh more heavily,” Wilson says.
Central banks—particularly in Europe—have signaled a willingness to hike rates in the face of inflation risks, and markets are pricing hikes in most G7 economies. But “we think those inflationary concerns are likely to prove overstated given the risks to growth and likely upward pressure on unemployment rates,” Wilson says. So while central banks may raise rates in the short term, there’s a high risk that any hikes may need to be unwound as concerns about growth come to the fore, Wilson adds.
An Increased Forecast for Data Center Power Demand
Goldman Sachs Research has raised its forecast for data center power demand amid signs of stronger demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and a process for training and running AI models that is more energy intensive than previously thought. The team now projects global power demand from data centers to grow 220% by 2030 relative to 2023 levels, up from 175% previously.
To put that into perspective, data center power demand in 2030 would be roughly the same size as the sixth biggest power-consuming country, says Brian Singer, global head of GS SUSTAIN in Goldman Sachs Research. The higher forecast is driven by two key factors: a growing number of servers being shipped, and a boom in data center construction around the world. Singer is also watching the deployment of generative AI servers. He says there are signs that the deployment of AI-driven models—called inference—uses more power than thought. “We generally thought of inference as a much less energy-intensive period per server. But we’re starting to see that change,” he says. Listen to our podcast episode with Singer for more on what’s driving growing global power demand.
Marquee Poll: Investor Bearishness on Credit Rises to 10-Year High
Credit markets have had a difficult start to the year, weighed down by rising inflation, uncertainty over the war in Iran, and concerns about risks from artificial intelligence and private lending. Investors don’t expect conditions in credit to improve soon, according to a survey of 784 Goldman Sachs clients conducted from March 31-April 1. More than three-quarters of respondents expect credit spreads to widen—the most since the Marquee QuickPoll started in 2016. Spreads widen when investors demand more compensation for investing in corporate bonds as compared to government bonds, usually due to heightened concerns about corporate balance sheets or the economic outlook.
About a third of respondents (29%) also picked credit as their favorite asset class to sell short, well ahead of the next most shorted asset, crude oil, at 16%. Meanwhile, when asked what asset class was their favorite to go long, the largest group of investors (31%) picked developed market equities.
How Private Equity Has Evolved Since the 1980s
In the 45 years since Steve Klinsky started out in private equity, the industry has transformed “from a form of finance into a form of business,” he says. Klinsky, the founder and CEO of alternative investment and private equity firm New Mountain Capital, was at graduate school during the first leveraged buyout of a public company. He went on to co-launch Goldman Sachs’ leveraged buyout business in the early 1980s. “It’s like going to Silicon Valley the year transistors were invented,” he says on the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors. At the time, inflation was high, prices were low, and private equity was “a cottage industry” where junk bonds and debt-fueled buyouts were the norm. In this environment, private equity “was really about borrowing a lot of money,” Klinsky says. “Forty-five years later it’s all about really knowing industries, building business after business.” Klinsky says that New Mountain Capital, which he founded in 1999, aims to pick promising businesses in defensive sectors (which tend to yield stable returns regardless of the economic conditions) and build them into strong companies—whether with add-on acquisitions, international expansion, or a good management team. “It’s always been about business building, not about financial engineering,” he says.
How Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz Could Affect Global Agriculture Prices
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for the world’s nitrogen fertilizer market, which is especially important for crops like corn and other grains . Disruption to the Strait because of the war in Iran could drive up prices for fertilizer and agriculture products around the globe, according to Goldman Sachs Research. More than a quarter of global nitrogen fertilizer trade and roughly 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG)—the primary feedstock for nitrogen production—transit the Strait, Goldman Sachs Research analyst Lina Thomas writes in a report. Shipping disruptions have already pushed nitrogen fertilizer prices, such as urea, up by 40% since the conflict began (as of March 24).
While higher fertilizer costs could increase grain prices—fertilizer accounts for about 20% of grain production costs—the bigger risk lies in reduced grain supply. Yield losses from delayed or sub-optimal nitrogen application, along with potential acreage shifts toward less fertilizer-intensive crops, could tighten global grain markets. The impact varies by region. The US appears relatively insulated in the near term, as most farmers probably secured fertilizer ahead of planting season, though April availability could still be affected. Europe, Australia, and parts of the Southern Hemisphere face greater exposure due to later crop calendars and reliance on LNG-linked fertilizer production. If disruptions persist, increased grain imports from the US by more exposed regions could push American grain prices higher as well. Read the full article , or find more of our insights on financial markets .
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