Resume af teksten:
Goldman Sachs Research forventer, at krigen i Iran og stigende oliepriser vil sænke USAs BNP-vækst og øge inflationen. Konflikten i Mellemøsten vil påvirke økonomien gennem højere energipriser og øget geopolitisk risiko, men recession undgås. Olieprisen forventes at falde til $71 pr. tønde mod slutningen af året. Koreanske aktier forventes at nå nye rekorder, på trods af konfliktpåvirkninger. Semiconductorfirmaer i Korea drager fordel af gunstige markedsforhold. Derudover har kritiske mineraler fået fokus pga. Kinas eksportkontrol, og USA kan fremskynde innovation i udvinding og genbrug. Kinas forbrugerfirmaer udvider globalt, påvirket af indenlandsk vækstnedgang, med succes i nogle sektorer på grund af konkurrencedygtige priser og opdaterede produkter. Fast rente-ETF’er ændrer obligationsmarkedets struktur, med stigende interesse i aktive ETF’er for præstationsfordele.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Goldman Sachs Research expects the war in Iran and rising oil prices to modestly slow US GDP growth and boost inflation, even as the world’s largest economy is still forecast to avoid recession. The Middle East conflict will mainly filter through the US economy through higher energy prices, with some additional impact from tighter financial conditions and a drag on hiring and investment from greater geopolitical risk, David Mericle, chief US economist, writes in a report. History suggests that while conflicts have sometimes led to large spikes in oil prices that lasted for a while, their impact on financial conditions has usually been more limited and briefer, Mericle writes. As of March 11, Goldman Sachs Research commodity strategists expect the price of Brent oil, the international benchmark, to average $98 a barrel in March and April—up from $61 at the end of 2025. They forecast that the price will fall back to $71 by the fourth quarter of this year. In turn, our economists raised their forecast for December headline inflation in 2026 by 0.8 percentage point to 2.9%. Goldman Sachs Research lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast (fourth quarter over fourth quarter) by 0.3 percentage point to 2.2%. It also raised its estimated risk of recession over the next 12 months by 5 percentage points to 25%. That’s 10 percentage points above the unconditional long-term average risk of recession. Read the full report or find more of our insights on energy markets .
Korean Stocks Projected to Set Fresh Record Highs
Korean stocks have fallen as the Middle East conflict ripples through financial markets around the world. But Goldman Sachs Research expects Korean stocks to recover and rise to fresh record highs this year. Our strategists increased their year-end 2026 target for Korea’s KOSPI index to 7,000 from 6,400 previously, writes Timothy Moe, chief Asia Pacific regional equity strategist and co-head of macro research in Asia. They also increased their 2026 Korean market earnings forecast to 130% from 120%. It’s the third time they have raised their earnings estimate this year. Goldman Sachs Research points out that investors in Korean stocks may not be as overextended as some think. Foreign investors have been net sellers this year, and retail leverage is modest relative to market capitalization. Domestic institutional investors’ ownership of Korean stocks is still below historically normal levels. Korea’s semiconductor companies enjoy an “exceptionally favorable” operating environment for memory chips. Memory prices are sharply increasing because of a record supply shortfall in both DRAM and NAND chips, owing to strong demand growth from hyperscalers. Our strategists also point out that the Korean stock market is home to many attractions outside the heavyweight semiconductor industry, from robotics to nuclear energy.
“We view the pullback as a correction that will likely be followed by a recovery to new highs after a period of consolidation,” Moe writes. Find more of our insights on financial markets .
What 2025 Taught the World About Critical Minerals
Critical minerals came into the spotlight last year when China expanded export controls on these key components of modern technology in response to US tariffs. Those events demonstrated China ’ s grip on the mining, processing, and refining of critical minerals—especially the heavy rare-earth metals used in permanent magnets, which are embedded in precision weapons, drones, radar, turbines, vehicles, and consumer devices. In a Q&A for the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says it will take the US and its allies years to build supply chain resilience. Even with government support, it ’ s hard to out-mine, out-process, or out-fund China in the near term. But the US could leapfrog China using disruptive mining technology innovation, recovery, and recycling at scale. Rather than attempting to replicate the entire supply chain, the US should combine the targeted build-out of domestic and allied mining and processing capacity with a complementary strategy that focuses on innovation. Several new technologies enabling extraction of critical minerals from waste are faster to scale and cleaner than traditional mining. Some are even approaching cost competitiveness globally. “ The fastest and most geopolitically resilient gains will come not from digging more holes in the ground but from treating waste as a strategic resource,” Crebo-Rediker says. Last year demonstrated that no country can build resilient critical minerals supply on its own. The resource base, the processing capacity, and the capital requirements are too widely distributed for any one player to achieve complete independence. “ Coordination among allies and ‘ like-minded countries ’ is therefore not optional,” Crebo-Rediker says.
How China’s Consumer Firms Are Pushing into Markets Overseas
Chinese consumer-goods companies are accelerating their global push, driven by slowing domestic growth and their proven competitive strengths. Their focus is shifting beyond emerging economies to Europe and North America, says Michelle Cheng, an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research. The competitiveness of Chinese consumer products lies in their price advantages, their frequent updates to meet fast-changing market trends, and their novel technology and design, according to Goldman Sachs Research. In developed markets, most categories skew towards a model that emphasizes value for price, while in emerging markets, the positioning shifts towards brand identities and premium products.
Brand equity varies by sector. “ Chinese smart appliances and white goods currently lead in global brand awareness,” Cheng writes, “but many other consumer categories still have a long way to go.” These white goods companies have been able to tailor their products to local demands, acquire local brands to enlarge their footprints, manufacture locally to circumvent tariffs, and tap into global marketing campaigns. While cultural relevance is another key factor to brand building in our analysts’ view, as shown by the experiences of Japanese and Korean brands, many successful Chinese brands possess a borderless identity and de-emphasize their origin; instead, they gain the attentions of global consumers through strong product development and frequent new launches. In comparison, companies selling cosmetics, food and beverages, and jewelry are at a much earlier stage of their global ambitions. The recent thrust overseas has been helped by the growth of cross-border e-commerce and social media, which has enabled brands to reach customers overseas more easily. Increased overseas direct investment as well as mergers and acquisitions have also helped companies ride on local brands rather than having to build their presence from scratch. Geopolitical risks, such as tariffs, export controls, and investment restrictions are impacting business expansion, says Cheng. “Tariffs, in particular, have been a top concern, affecting almost all sectors,” she writes. But globally, there is rising trust in Chinese products, “which have upgraded from a purely low-price perception to offering premium value,” she adds.
Fixed Income ETFs Are Changing the Structure of the Bond Market
“This moment reminds me of earlier in my career when I was an equity trader, running around the trading floor buying one stock at a time. Fast forward to today and now investors can, at the click of a button, gain exposure to hundreds or thousands of stocks around the globe via a single ETF. We see the same pattern evolving in fixed income today.” —Brendan McCarthy, global head of ETF distribution at Goldman Sachs Asset Management Fixed income exchange traded funds are changing the structure of a market that’s long been fragmented and challenging to navigate, McCarthy says. It isn’t just bonds that are getting a boost from this trend. Many investors are turning to active ETFs for potential outperformance of benchmarks across asset classes and to achieve other financial goals, such as generating income and managing risk, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Active ETFs worldwide held nearly $1.8 trillion in assets at the end of 2025 and delivered an organic growth rate of 53% last year, according to data compiled in 2025 and 2026 from Morningstar and Goldman Sachs Asset Management . On a global basis, this means flows into active ETFs, measured as a percentage of assets, were roughly four times stronger than those into passive ETFs. In the US, nearly one‑third of all ETF flows went to active funds last year, double the share seen in 2022. Additionally, more than 85% of new ETF launches in the US were active strategies.
Read the full Q&A with McCarthy.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
