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Oliepriser faldt efter nyheden om en to ugers våbenhvile mellem USA og Iran. Brent-olie lukkede torsdag til $95,90 pr. tønde, ned fra $109,30 tirsdag. Fremtiden for oliepriser afhænger af genopretningen af trafikken gennem Hormuzstrædet, en vigtig rute for global olieforsyning. Goldman Sachs’ strategier forventer, at Brent-olie vil gennemsnitligt være $80 pr. tønde i fjerde kvartal, under antagelse af en hurtig genopretning i olieforsyningen. USA’s aktiemarked steg på onsdag, drevet af ophævelse af kortsalg positioner. Store investorer forventes at tage positive positioner i den kommende tid. Teknologisektoren har underpræsteret, hvilket kan medføre investeringsmuligheder. Goldman Sachs nævner tre investeringsområder i 2026 som AI-drevet energiefterspørgsel, mega-IPO cyklus og Japans økonomiske skift.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Oil fell on news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, trading at $95.90 per barrel at Thursday’s close—down from $109.30 on Tuesday. But the path of oil prices will depend on the extent and speed of any recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route through which about one-fifth of global oil supply normally flows, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our commodities strategists have kept their medium-term forecast unchanged. They expect Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year (as of April 9). Goldman Sachs Research last raised its fourth-quarter forecast for oil from $71 to $80 in mid-March on disruptions to oil supply from the Middle East. The unchanged forecast assumes that the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz starts to pick up this weekend, followed by a gradual one-month recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports to pre-war levels, says Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research.
If the ceasefire doesn’t hold and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is postponed for a month, Brent could still average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 provided oil production in the Persian Gulf fully recovers. In a severely adverse scenario with a delay in reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and persistent oil production losses in the Middle East of two million barrels per day, Brent prices could be as high as $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Struyven emphasizes that there is still a lot of uncertainty around the ceasefire. “We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside on net from potentially longer disruptions and persistent crude production losses,” he says.
From the Trading Floor: More Gains for US Equities?
US equities surged on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement—a move that was largely driven by short covering, according to Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. Some expect that large investors will continue to take bullish positions over the next week. Wednesday saw the largest unwind of short positions on US-listed ETFs since August 2020, with most of the action taking place in large-cap equity ETFs, according to observations from the Goldman Sachs Prime Insights & Analytics team. (When these positions are unwound, traders exit bearish positions by buying back shares that they had previously sold.) Short exposure has now fallen back to early March levels—though it remains above recent averages.
As the conflict unfolded, large investors were “fairly aggressive” about shorting stocks in order to hedge against geopolitically driven equity declines, Lee Coppersmith, who co-runs New York Equity Derivatives Sales, says on this week’s episode of The Markets podcast . Following the ceasefire, “clients are looking to take down some of the short exposure,” Coppersmith says. He adds that fund managers will also look to increase exposure to the stocks they feel most strongly about—which is one reason he expects large-cap tech stocks to rally in the weeks ahead. Separately, a set of systematic trend-following investors known as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are likely to buy due to the flip in momentum, says John Flood, Head of Americas Equities Sales Trading. Flood says that CTAs are collectively holding a $30 billion short position on the S&P 500, and “our model suggests that at current market levels, CTAs will buy $34 billion of S&P 500 over the next week.”
Quoted: Technology Stocks Look Cheap
“So far this year, the global technology sector has had one of the worst periods of relative underperformance compared with the world ex tech since the early 1970s… This underperformance is starting to generate attractive opportunities for investors as the sector’s valuation, relative to expected consensus growth, has fallen below that of the global aggregate market.” —Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research Read the full article for Oppenheimer’s analysis of the potential opportunities in tech stocks.
Three Investment Themes to Watch in 2026
Financial markets whipsawed this week on signs of escalation in Iran followed by news of a ceasefire. While the impact of events in the Middle East on energy prices is still the most important factor for markets in the near term, chief investment officers (CIOs) across Goldman Sachs Asset Management are constructive about investment opportunities in the medium and longer term. Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s quarterly CIO Digest identifies three investment themes they’re watching closely: Commodities at the intersection of AI and energy security: Massive infrastructure requirements for artificial intelligence (AI) are driving a structural shift in commodity markets. AI-driven energy demand, coupled with geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain chokepoints (such as the Strait of Hormuz), is exposing limits in spare capacity. This reinforces the investor demand for “hard assets,” where commodities are increasingly viewed as essential for national energy security and portfolio resilience. The mega-IPO cycle: In an anticipated “mega-IPO cycle,” dominant AI companies are preparing for historic debuts in public markets. Meanwhile the heavy capital expenditure from “hyperscalers” on AI is expected to continue into 2026, potentially catalyzing a broader revival in dealmaking. However, CIOs also warn that market volatility stemming from changes in global trade and fiscal concerns could pose a challenge for some public offerings. Japan’s structural pivot: Japan’s transition to an economy with scarce labor and rising interest rates is a major switch from its recent history as a deflationary economy. Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s CIOs are becoming more cautious about credit markets, particularly in terms of AI-related software risks and their potential spillover into lower-quality US collateralized loan obligations. They are also more cautious about European credit, which remains vulnerable to potential energy shocks and geopolitical instability. Read Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s CIO Digest .
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
