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Goldman Sachs Research har sænket sandsynligheden for en amerikansk recession til 25% fra tidligere 30%. Hovedårsagerne inkluderer stabil økonomisk aktivitet og lempede finansielle forhold. Den 10-ugers lukning af Hormuzstrædet har haft begrænset økonomisk påvirkning, især fordi oliepriser ikke steg forventet. Forventningen er, at olieprisen vil forblive stabil og falde til $90 per tønde ved årets udgang. Goldman Sachs diskuterer også ændringer i traditionelle porteføljer til at håndtere stigende inflation. Derudover bemærkes det, at markedskoncentration i store indekser udgør risici for investorer. Kina forventes at opleve en nedgang i eksportvækst i nær fremtid, men grøn teknologisektorens udsigter forbliver stærke.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has declined to 25% from 30%, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Research’s chief economist, writes in a report. He points out that economic activity has held up well and Goldman Sachs Research’s financial conditions index has eased back below levels seen before the war in Iran.
Hatzius says there are three reasons why the 10-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had only a moderate impact on economic growth so far: Oil prices have not risen as much as expected, partly because of unusually high pre-war inventories and partly because markets never lost faith that very large consumer price hikes would prompt a shift in US policy. Physical shortages in the likes of jet fuel have so far been met with relatively painless forms of demand destruction (e.g. a large shift to renewables in China and reduced flight schedules on lower-value routes globally). Fiscal policy, the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and—with a brief interruption in March—financial conditions have been supportive all year. Under Goldman Sachs Research’s baseline assumption that the Strait reopens gradually, starting soon and finishing in late June, Brent oil prices are forecast to be stable in the near term and edge down to $90 per barrel by year-end. “However, the risks remain tilted toward more adverse outcomes, higher oil prices, and greater economic damage,” Hatzius adds. Read the full report . In case you missed it: President Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, was confirmed as Fed chair this week. Listen to our Exchanges podcast for more on how Warsh could shape Fed policy .
W ill the Corporate Investment in AI Pay Off?
For AI to live up to its promise, and for returns to spread beyond the semiconductor companies that have enjoyed most of the benefit so far, enterprises have to find greater value in the technology, according to Goldman Sachs Research . Ultimately, successful enterprise AI adoption will drive the economics for the entire supply chain. “ The general idea is that chip companies are supposed to thrive when their customers thrive,” writes James Covello, head of Global Equity Research. “They are not supposed to be thriving at the expense of the companies higher in the chain.”
What needs to happen to help enterprises create value from their AI spending? They should organize their data to support the rollout of agentic AI. And enterprises need to route workflows to AI models appropriately, based on complexity and cost considerations. The researchers envision a new “orchestration and deployment layer” in the AI supply chain to help enterprises in this way and unlock value from AI spending. In addition, Goldman Sachs Research’s equity analysts have identified a number of industries where large-scale profit disruption seems more likely. Those sectors include advertising, software, cybersecurity, and transportation. Read the full article or find more of our insights on AI .
The Outlook for Chinese Exports
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated energy prices are expected to slow China’s export engine in the near term, even as the country’s longer-term prospects in green technology remain strong, according to Goldman Sachs Research . “While the near-term outlook for China’s exports may be weighed down by energy-driven demand headwinds, the same shock could accelerate the global push for energy security, creating a more supportive backdrop in the medium term,” writes Chelsea Song, a Hong Kong-based economist at Goldman Sachs Research. China’s real GDP growth is expected to decline to 4% in the second quarter (quarter-over-quarter, annualized) from 5.3% in the prior quarter, due to the effects of the energy shock, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The most immediate risk lies with flagging demand for exports from China’s trading partners in the developing world, which accounted for more than half of China’s nominal exports in 2025. They are among the most vulnerable to a bottleneck in energy supplies, Song notes.
Over the medium term, China stands to benefit from a global shift toward renewable energy. The country produces roughly 86% of global solar modules, 80% of lithium-ion batteries, and 68% of electric vehicles. These “new three” exports contributed around 1 percentage point to the 5.4% nominal export growth last year. “The new three have become an increasingly important driver of export performance,” writes Song. Read the full article or find more of our insights on energy markets .
Is it Time to Rethink Traditional Balanced Portfolios?
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo (L) with host Allison Nathan on Goldman Sachs Exchanges
The traditional 60/40 portfolio—60% stocks and 40% bonds—needs a modern overhaul to navigate a world where inflation has become more prevalent, according to Goldman Sachs strategists . Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation in Goldman Sachs Research, says that the macroeconomic regime has shifted since 2022. While the prior 15-year cycle favored equities and negative bond-equity correlations were good for 60/40 portfolios, rising inflation now demands a more deliberate approach to portfolio construction. He outlines a framework built on three pillars: exposure to innovation, protection against inflation, and improved risk mitigation—including greater allocations to real assets, factor-based strategies, and select alternatives. An innovation boost, powered largely by AI and the broader technology sector, is a key reason why equities have defied the threat of stagflation. Mueller-Glissmann notes that roughly 60% of S&P 500 market capitalization now sits in technology, media, telecommunications, and financial stocks, with energy-exposed sectors pushing that figure to 70%. As a result, stocks recently hit all-time highs even as bonds and gold—the balancing assets in a classic 60/40 portfolio—suffered from an inflationary energy shock. “If you have a stagflationary concern about the economy, that matters a bit less to the S&P these days,” Mueller-Glissmann says on Goldman Sachs Exchanges. Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-head and co-chief investment officer in Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Solutions Group, says investors should rethink the fixed-income component of the 60/40 portfolio model, advocating for more options and hedging strategies to handle both rallies and downturns in an inflationary environment. “It’s not about abandoning the concept of 60/40. It’s modernizing what the 40 represents,” she says. In case you missed it: Read our Q&A article on how rising prices are impacting US households and companies.
The Rising Risks of Crowded Indexes
The growing dominance of a handful of giant stocks in major indexes doesn’t automatically make markets more volatile or suggest that companies are overvalued—but it does create underappreciated risks for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. The weight of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 has risen sharply over the past decade: They now account for 36.5% of the index by market capitalization. But “the link between index concentration and volatility is not clear-cut,” says Osman Ali, global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies in Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “We believe that the return prospects of the concentrated names matter at least as much as the degree of concentration,” he adds.
In fact, Goldman Sachs Asset Management finds that top stocks could support index stability even at times when concentration has been most extreme. With that said, concentration does pose other important risks for investors: Passive strategies replicate whatever concentration exists, leaving investors more exposed to a potential drawdown if sentiment shifts sharply against the largest holdings. Indexes are becoming more sensitive to the earnings announcements of a small group of companies, amplifying idiosyncratic risks for benchmarks. Concentration limits the ability of active long-only portfolio managers to express negative views on smaller stocks with lower weights in the index. In the case of the MSCI All Country World Index, where half of the stocks collectively account for only 5% of the index, underweighting those stocks would only free up 5% to apply toward overweight positions elsewhere in the index. Investors can respond by staying active and diversifying into less concentrated parts of the market—such as smaller companies and developed markets outside the US, Ali says. Read the full report or find more of our insights on global financial markets .
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
