Investorerne skal først og fremmest satse på de innovative selskaber, der skaber helt nye vilkår og forandringer. Ifølge Goldman Sachs har kun 16 pct. af de globale selskaber skabt 75 pct. af værditilvæksten på markedet – i de seneste ti år. Siden 1926 har 60 pct. af aktierne givet tab for investorerne. Det er altså i de ganske få top-performere, at værdierne skabes. Det er selskaber, der skaber disruption og går nye veje i f.eks. teknologi- og sundhedssektoren, og i den seneste tid har det f.eks. været selskaber i metaverse, der på kort tid har skabt en marked på omkring 8.000 milliarder dollar. Nye områder kan være selskaber, der udnytter omstillingen til grøn energi. Det afgørende er, at investorerne tænker grænseoverskridende og ikke bare tror, at en bred spredning af investeringerne giver et godt resultat. Det er nogle specifikke selskaber, der gør forskellen.
Investing with Innovation in Mind
We think a more focused approach in investing, based on fundamentals and future opportunities, may be more accretive.
For example, at the upper end of performers, over the last 10 years nearly 75% of all wealth generated in the global stock market came from just 16% of global companies. At the bottom end, over a longer history, nearly 60% of stocks have reduced shareholder wealth since 1926 by underperforming one-month Treasury Bills.
An indexed approach would have exposure to both sides of the spectrum, but with most value creation coming from the top.
Innovators are disrupting incumbents, but they are also venturing into entirely new fields. For example, technological advancement in the metaverse is estimated to be an ~$8 trillion industry driven by developments in virtual reality, blockchain, and hardware technologies. In health care, gene therapy and precision medicine have the potential to transform medical experiences. And as the climate transition continues to evolve, renewable technologies will grow.
Importantly, we think these companies that are innovating new technologies, disrupting old technologies, or enabling such changes exist across sectors and across geographies.
Where investors in the past may have gotten exposure through a broad growth tilt, tech overweight, or US bias, they may miss out in the future. Innovators today have robust representation throughout global markets.
As such, we see value in an approach without borders, focused instead on specific companies moving ahead.
