Goldman Sachs har analyseret markedsudviklingen før og efter et toppunkt i inflationen og illustrerer resultatet i en enkelt graf. Markederne falder i gennemsnit med 2 pct. i de seks måneder før en inflations-top, men i de følgende 12 måneder kommer aktierne stærkt tilbage – i snit med 10 pct. – også selv om inflationen fører til en recession. Banken mener, at markederne vil stige, hvis inflationen normaliseres.
Sneak Peak
As sources of US inflation have continued to be broad-based, equity returns have remained challenged. Historically, the equity market has fallen 2% on average in the 6-month run up to an inflation peak. However, in the subsequent 12 months after a peak, we’ve observed strong equity market returns averaging 10%, even if a recession ensued. We believe equity markets may be well positioned for a recovery should inflation normalize.
Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group and GS Asset Management.