Goldman Sachs har analyseret markedernes historiske udvikling efter et bear market. Der kan stadig ventes stor volatilitet, men banken mener, at risikoen kan være mere balanceret nu. Historien viser, at aktiemarkedet har en tendens til at stige kraftigt i de første seks måneder efter et bear market. Det er især de mindre virksomheder, der stiger kraftigt i den første periode efter en vending.
Thinking Caps
A confluence of macro uncertainties–decelerating GDP growth, a tight labor market, and elevated inflation–may continue to invite market volatility across risk asset performance. However, from levels today, we think the risks have also become more balanced. History suggests that the US equity market tends to rally strongly in the 6-months following a bear market bottom. For US small caps, the recovery is especially pronounced in the early innings of an economic cycle.
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Asset Management.