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Goldman Sachs Research hæver prognosen for Brent-olie til 90 dollar pr. tønde i december 2026 fra 85 dollar.
Brent-olie ventes i gennemsnit at koste 80 dollar pr. tønde i 2027.
Eksporten af olie fra Den Persiske Golf er siden slutningen af september steget til tæt på 2025-niveauet.
Analysen forventer et globalt olieoverskud fra fjerde kvartal 2026.
Amerikanske selskabers aktietilbagekøb ventes at stige til 1,7 billioner dollar i 2027 fra 1,5 billioner dollar i år.
Stigende renter kan ifølge analysen begrænse væksten i aktietilbagekøb.
Tysklands reale eksport ventes at stige 3,5 procent i 2026 og 2,4 procent i 2027.
Stærk udenlandsk efterspørgsel, produktivitet og handel med USA og EU fremhæves som faktorer for tysk eksport.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Oil prices are forecast to moderate over the next year as shipments from the Middle East gradually recover, though prices may stay high for longer than anticipated given the risk of escalation in the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, now expects Brent crude to trade at $90 a barrel in December 2026, up from a prior forecast of $85. His team sees Brent averaging $80 a barrel in 2027. Persian Gulf oil exports, including an estimated four million barrels per day of “ dark ” shipments on tankers that turn off their transponders to hide their movements, have rebounded close to 2025 levels since late September. Struyven’s team expects supply from the Persian Gulf to “trend higher as continued adaptation and added transportation resources—especially pipelines and a larger tanker fleet—support further gains,” he adds. Still, physical oil prices remain elevated, with a $25 risk premium boosting spot Brent, our commodities analysts estimate. Inventories that are near record lows are increasing demand, and investors who are using oil as a portfolio hedge are also lifting prices.
The key driver of the forecast for lower prices is our researchers’ base case for the global oil market to shift to a surplus starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. This will be a result of Gulf suppliers adapting, higher output from non-Gulf suppliers, and demand reductions caused by recent high prices.
Quoted: How Chinese Companies Are Increasing Market Share
Trina Chen on Goldman Sachs Exchanges
“If you see companies cede the peripheral market or the low-end segment, they essentially are giving the beachhead to the competitors, the Chinese competition, and letting them have the opportunity to move forward from there to the upper market. So, you increase the risk in the future.” —Trina Chen, co-head of Greater China Equity Research Chinese companies often enter new markets that are underserved by established incumbents, says Chen. Investment by these incumbents may be relatively “lean” because the market segment is no longer their focus. That results in an asymmetric environment with better chances of success for Chinese companies. Listen to the full episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast for more on the surge in Chinese exports.
Will Rising Rates Derail Surging Share Buybacks?
US boards are authorizing their companies to repurchase more and more of their own shares. The growth in buybacks has accelerated in recent quarters as an increased rate of repurchases by artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure companies has offset the decline in buybacks from hyperscalers, according to Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist in Goldman Sachs Research.
“However, if interest rates continue to rise, a narrowing gap between the cost of debt and cost of equity will likely restrain the pace of corporate buyback growth,” Snider writes in a report. The sharp increase in rates this year has reduced the gap between the S&P 500 cost of equity and the cost of debt to around two percentage points—one of the narrowest levels in recent decades, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
With the cost of debt nearing the cost of equity, equity issuance becomes more attractive relative to debt financing, which could prompt companies to rely more on equity capital and rein in buybacks, according to Snider. But given that Goldman Sachs Research expects interest rates to decline next year, Snider’s base case is for buyback growth to continue in 2027. His team expects US corporate buybacks to total $1.7 trillion in 2027, up from $1.5 trillion this year. Read more of our insights about financial markets .
German Exports Rebound amid Resilient Demand
Germany’s exports increased in the first half of 2026 and are providing a modest boost to economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research . Our economists forecast real export growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 2.4% the following year. Strong export performance in the first half of 2026 is consistent with healthy foreign demand and a modest improvement in relative unit labor costs, driven by stronger productivity growth. In addition to improved competitiveness, our economists expect revived trade with the US and the European Union, plus the global AI buildout to boost the outlook for German trade. “Taken together, we are more optimistic about German export performance than at the start of 2026,” writes Niklas Garnadt, an economist in Goldman Sachs Research, in a report.
Garnadt cautions that Chinese competition is likely to keep challenging German exporters over the medium term, particularly in third markets. Even so, Garnadt points out that Germany’s surprisingly positive performance in the first half of 2026 shows a significant shift in the export sector following a long period of relative weakness. Read the full article on Germany’s export sector.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
