Goldman Sachs ser fortsat 45 procent sandsynlighed for recession i USA: ”Our 12-month recession risk estimate remains 45%. Beyond US-China, we still expect further tariff increases in other areas—e.g. pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and potentially movies—and see a meaningful risk that some of the paused “rec iprocal” tariffs will take effect after all. Moreover, it is not unusual for hard data to lag significantly in event-driven downturns, and the surge in pre-buying probably lengthens that lag further. It is notable that the soft data—which have their own shortcomings but are less susceptible to pre-buying distortions—have already fallen more than in the typical event-driven recession, even when we take the slightly better-than-expected ISMs for April into account. This is especially true for consumer and business expectations, and to a lesser degree for current conditions as well.”
Morten W. Langer
