Goldman Sachs tror ikke, at Joe Biden kommer igennem med sin finanspakke på 1,9 trillion dollar (1900 milliarder). Banken tror snarere på næsten en halvering til 1,1 trillion dollar. Desuden mener banken, at kun 27 pct. kommer i form af direkte og hurtige udbetalinger til amerikanerne. Meget af pakken vil først få en virkning på længere sigt, herunder i infrastruktur.
Fiscal Injection
A unified Democratic Congress increases the likelihood of near-term fiscal stimulus in the US, although the timing and size remain uncertain.
We currently expect $1.1 trillion in additional fiscal support to be approved between mid-February and mid-March, with risks to the upside.
Although around 27% is expected to come in the form of individual payments, which may be paid out more quickly, much of the incremental spending may take longer to reach the economy.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. As of January 14, 2021.