Goldman Sachs maner investorerne til at tage det roligt i år trods øget inflation og en skrap pengepolitik. Banken har analyseret syv tidligere perioder, hvor centralbanken, Fed, har hævet renterne, og de har altid vist, at aktier giver et bedre afkast end råvarer og obligationer. De har i gennemsnit givet et afkast på mindst en-cifrede stigninger midt i feltet. Analysen viser, at det mest dækkende aktieindeks, S&P-500, har givet et afkast på 8 pct. i snit under Fed’s stramninger. Derfor anbefaler banken fortsat aktieinvesteringer.
Keep Calm and Carry On
Easing Omicron risks, a tight labor market, and elevated inflation have prompted the Fed to begin normalizing monetary policy. While market repricing is expected, we believe risk assets may still post positive returns in the year ahead.
Over the past nine Fed hiking cycles, equities and commodities have outperformed bonds, and delivered at least mid-single digit returns, on average.
We favor risk assets in an environment of supportive growth and low real rate.
Source: Datastream, Haver Analytics, Kenneth French, Goldman Sachs GIR.