Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs:
Markets will be happy to put the brutal month of March in the rearview mirror, which until yesterday’s explosive short squeeze, was shaping up as the worst month for the S&P since Sept 2022 (yesterday’s torrid rally pushed the monthly drop to “only” 5% which was still the worst .month since March 2025.
While doubts remain that the March 31 jump was anything more than a technical squeeze, and with the geopolitical situation hardly giving the much needed “all clear” as we enter a new month, here is what the various top traders from across Goldman’s desk think of the market here.
TMT – Peter Bartlett, Peter Callahan, Leyla Kamshad
- What stocks are most topical / debated right now: META & MSFT (no dip buyers?); MU / SNDK (wobble in memory/ NAND or more than that?); DASH (what are bears saying); DELL / HPE (are these ‘real’ moves that can be sustained?)
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): Mag 7 sentiment took a meaningful leg lower and the group lost a collective ~$800+ bn in market cap last week alone (but then recovered $1 trillion in the 3 days since Friday) The cohort no longer trades as “defensive” with concerns on cash flow generation & various idiosyncratic risk factors (Regulatory, Business Disruption from Frontier Labs, Capex, etc.)
- What catalysts matter most next mont: Earnings – Especially the “Revenues” produced by CSPs (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG) as the market looks for inflecting growth rates as a proof point to justify Capex & demonstrate ROICs, as well as provide a “cushion” into 2027…
- What looks extended: Per 14-Day RSI, Overbought: ARM, MRVL, DELL, HPE, CFLT, DOCN, YOU vs. Oversold: TME, ACMR, SAP, MSFT, GTLB, SAIL, SNAP, META, GOOG, UMG, FUBO
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking o: Two Notes From GIR: 1) Revisiting Software Moats in Cybersecurity (Link): Addresses debate on how far frontier models could expand into the security stack & 2) Q1 2026 Equity Strategy Preview (Link): Hyperscaler Capex a large focus as group FCF has declined by 32% in the past 12 months, street expects Capex sum will total $149 billion in 1Q 2026 (+92% YoY) before decelerating in subsequent quarters
Financials – Alex Mitola, Christian DeGrasse
- What stocks are most topical / debated right now: Alts (What’s the right multiple for non-retail credit FRE?); Additional focus in alts around STEP & HLNE (non-credit retail impacted too?); FICO (Vantage competition and regulatory scrutiny); C (setup into investor day, M&A?); Insurance brokers (AJG, BRO, MRSH, RYAN in particular, cheap valuation vs views estimates still have room lower + continued AI debate)
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): Capital markets activity (weaker on volatility related worries), Mortgage recovery (more cautious given rates), Crypto regulatory reform (sentiment has shifted less favorable to crypto-companies) ..
- What catalysts matter most next month: Earnings kick off on the 14th with JPM, C, and WFC..
- What looks extended: Per 14-day RSIs: Overbought: MRX, FHI, BFH, ZION, UNM vs. Oversold: RYAN, SOFI, HLI, OWL, RJF, V, JKHY, MKL
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on: US banking regulatory agencies released 3 Notices for Proposed Rulemaking (NPRs) on 1) the revised Basel III Endgame (B3E) 2) G-SIB buffer recalibration and 3) changes to the US Standardized Approach. Ramsden & Team run through the proposals and thoughts here (Link)
Healthcare – PJ Gallo, Jon Chan
- What stocks are most topical / debated right now: HUM, BSX, LLY, UNH
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc: BSX accelerated its negative momentum this month, ahead of and exiting the highly anticipated CHAMPION-AF data at ACC. Near-term focus shifts towards 1Q earnings, where a potential update to its guidance is in focus.
- What catalysts matter most next month: MA Final Rate, 1Q EPS, LLY’s Oral Orforglipron Approval Decision
- What looks extended: Medtech Negativity
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on: AI Drug Discovery Headlines picking up, Oral GLP-1 Market Continuing to Emerge
Consumer – Eric Mihelc, Scott Feiler
- What stocks are most topical / debated right now: NKE, ONON, DKS, ULTA, WING, SHAK, EL, OLLI, CPRI
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): Housing stocks moved from being one of the most preferred trades/sector to start the year to being much more guarded on the back-up in rates. On this front, the selling in Industrials (which had been the most bought in January/February), is on track to see the largest % net selling in the sector that GS PB data shows on record.
- What catalysts matter most next month: High frequency data, as we have not yet seen demand destruction from the higher gas prices yet. Monday morning’s tend to have the most volatile trading around data releases.
- What looks extended: Per 14-Day RSI .. Overbought: ROST, DAR, UNFI, SFD, HTZ, CAR vs. Oversold: ONON, AEO, VITL, GIS, MKC, WING
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on: Putting Private Credit Risks in Macroeconomic Context (Link)
Industrials – Amanda Ross, Ryan Novak
- What stocks are most topical / debated right now: Equipment rental including URI, SUNB, HRI and EQPT. Several dynamics impacting the space right now. Competition for capital is increasing as SUNB relisted (previously AHT LN) creating a new, liquid large cap in the US .. EQPT creating a smaller cap name with a higher growth profile. Industry competition in focus as well with CAT talking at industry events about growing their presence in the market.
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): Aerospace aftermarket – indirect link to airlines weaker profitability pressuring the names. Aerospace aftermarket which has been one of the two growth areas within the sector (data center the other) has come under pressure with airlines’ cost structure hurt by jet fuel up 50% since the conflict in the Middle East began with BA and Airbus ramping production of new aircraft there are concerns in the market about pressure on maintenance events slowing the aftermarket growth rate.
- What catalysts matter most next month: April will bring a fresh set of data points including the ISM where regional surveys and on the ground, commentary have been constructive but geopolitical concerns drive uncertainty – so will be a data point in focus. Mid-month starts Q1 earnings where focus will be on commentary regarding the potential impact from Middle East conflict from demand, supply chain, commodities amongst other items.
- What looks extended: Per 14-Day RSI, Overbought: LYB, DOW, CF, CAR, MEOH, BG vs. Oversold: GPK, CWST, WHR, MBLY, FBIN, ESAB, TDG
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on: Airlines and structural increase in products (jet fuel). Airlines are in a difficult spot with demand vulnerable in Q2 and beyond with airlines attempting to pass along higher fuel prices in the form of higher air fares. The cost structure will be penalized for an entire quarter in Q2 as well with jet fuel unlikely to go down as much as crude if there were to be a resolution to the conflict overseas.
Energy/Utes – Amanda Ross, Adam Wijaya
- What stocks are most topical / debated right now: Energy – ongoing debate in the specialist community surrounding a ‘higher for longer’ energy price environment across Brent/WTI/TTF/products – with refiners (VLO, MPC, PBF, DINO, PSX) in focus given strong performance in 2025, continued o/p YTD and exposure to tight distillate markets (jet fuel in particular). Global gas is top of mind with the upward pressure on TTF – where folks are spending more time on VG, LNG and GLNG – with torque to supply tightness on the back of material disruptions and potential for incremental SPAs to be inked on go forward.
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): International OFS (WFRD, SLB, NESR) names have been under pressure over the last couple of weeks on the back of guidance revisions (SLB) and concerns around near-term activity impacts in the ME. To start the year – International names were more in focus on Venezuela activity tailwinds, positive estimate revisions 2026+ and attractive valuation.
- What catalysts matter most next month: Next OPEC meeting is scheduled for 4/5 – where investors will be looking for updates on potential supply acceleration in the context of the events in the Middle East. Worth noting oversupply narrative on crude has been less in focus for generalists and specialists given ongoing Hormuz closure.
- What looks extended: Per 14-Day RSI Overbought: XOM, PBF, LNG, COP, EQT, OXY, PTEN, HAL vs. Oversold: FSLR, ENPH, CCJ, EXE, CEG, TLN, SEI, NESR
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on: Structural damage to Energy infrastructure assets across the Middle East continues to be in focus 1) Qatar LNG reported 17% impact to LNG export capacity on the back of Iranian attacks in March 2) Repairs are expected to take 3-5 years and sideline 12.8 MTPA pf capacity. Front month TTF expected to remain volatile near-term and the structural supply glut that has permeated global gas markets for the last year+ is starting to lose some relative steam.
Special Situations – Peter Davis, Andrew Ramirez
- What situations are most topical / debated right now: WBD (Regulatory Review); NSC/UNP (Regulatory Path); WBS/SAN (Geopolitical Risk); QRVO/SWKS (SAMR Review)
- Where was the biggest inflection this past month (stock, theme, sector, etc): March was a mixed month for arbs as several crowded deals closed most notably EXAS ($22bn) & CFLT ($11bn) returning capital back into investors’ hands. On the hand remaining crowded spreads NSC/UNP & WBD widened this month by 2.5% & 7.3% respectively.
- What catalysts matter most next month: JHG (SH Vote); FOLD (EC Phase I Expires); CTRA (HSR Expires); ACLX (TO Expires); TERN (TO Launch); VAL (HSR Expires); DAWN (HSR Expires)
- What are the most popular Arb names: EA, KVUE/KMB, NSC/UNP, HOLX, TERN, CWAN, DBRG
- What note / topic / story is worth double-clicking on: Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy up manufacturing companies and seek to use AI technology to accelerate their path to automation. The fund, described in investor documents as a “manufacturing transformation vehicle,” is aiming to buy companies in major industrial sectors such as chipmaking, defense, and aerospace. (Link)
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