Resume af teksten:
Volatilitet i AI-infrastrukturaktier har øget investorers interesse for andre investeringstemaer. Goldman Sachs Research fremhæver tre investeringstemaer uden relation til AI: forbrugsoplevelser, ‘compounders’ og M&A-muligheder. US small-cap aktier har overgået large caps i første halvdel af 2026, ifølge Greg Tuorto fra Goldman Sachs, understøttet af lavere renter og AI-infrastruktur. Goldman Sachs forventer, at den amerikanske inflation vil køle af, forudsat stabile oliepriser, og renten vil forblive uændret i år. M&A-aktivitet er steget med 48% i 2026, drevet af stærk aktiemarkedsperformance og strategisk pres. AI-baserede “DNA deals” får øget fokus, og likviditet i private markeder bliver en drivkraft i fusioner og opkøb.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
A jump in the volatility of stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure has triggered renewed interest in investment themes outside of the technology.
“While many fund managers have maintained a bullish fundamental view on the AI infrastructure complex, recent volatility has made it challenging to maintain that view in portfolios,” Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist, writes in a report. “Our conversations with investors have also focused on the challenge of finding investment opportunities not tied to AI, with many sectors trading with a strong positive or negative correlation to AI and momentum in recent months,” Snider writes. Goldman Sachs Research highlights three investment themes that are unrelated to AI and have minimal correlation to those stocks: Consumer-experience stocks offer exposure to strong, sustained secular growth in consumer spending on experiences. These equities trade at undemanding valuations and have limited risk from AI disruption. Stocks that Goldman Sachs Research describes as “compounders” have strong earnings growth, returns on capital, balance sheets, and free cash flow conversion but have recently lagged behind. They now trade at a historically large valuation discount. M&A candidates , identified by equity analysts in Goldman Sachs Research, are stocks that do not appear to have priced in the ongoing surge in M&A activity. A group of potential M&A candidates identified by Goldman Sachs Research equity analysts has outperformed sharply in recent weeks. Read the full article or find more of our insights on financial markets .
Why the Outperformance of US Small-Cap Stocks Could Be Here to Stay
US small-cap stocks finished the first half of 2026 with their biggest outperformance relative to US large caps since 2003. The gains may be the start of a multi-year rally , according to Greg Tuorto of Goldman Sachs Asset & Wealth Management.
To explain why, Tuorto looks at the small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 versus the large-cap S&P 500 over the last year and a half. After lagging large caps at the beginning of 2025, the Russell 2000 started to pull ahead around the middle of the year. The index was buoyed by hopes for lower interest rates, the AI infrastructure buildout, and a rally in biotech stocks. “Investors saw robust earnings growth ahead and valuations that looked extremely attractive,” Tuorto says. Goldman Sachs Asset & Wealth Management sees a broadening range of investment opportunities in tech, healthcare, industrials, and consumer businesses, which “leads us to the belief that the foundation of this rally is quite strong,” Tuorto adds. Also read our article on how rising capex—including from companies involved in AI and defense—could be part of a new investing regime favoring physical infrastructure over asset-light models.
Quoted: The Outlook for US Inflation
David Mericle with host Allison Nathan on Goldman Sachs Exchanges
“We think we will see softer monthly inflation going forward.” —David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research While the conflict in the Middle East risks reigniting energy prices, Mericle says he expects cooler US inflation in the coming months if “oil prices stay where they are.” Goldman Sachs Research projects the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged this year before lowering them in 2027. For more on the team’s outlook for Fed policy and US GDP growth, listen to the full episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
How AI Is Driving M&A Activity in 2026
The market for mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in 2026 has been marked by a “volatility paradox,” in which strategic urgency has overridden geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Global M&A volumes rose 48% in the first half of 2026, year over year, supported by strong equity performances, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. In a June survey of 500 of the team’s corporate and financial sponsor clients, nearly half felt that macroeconomic anxieties made them more willing to pursue deals. “We’re seeing a fundamental shift where boardrooms view inaction as the ultimate risk—proactively pursuing transformative transactions despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds,” says Stephan Feldgoise, head of global M&A at Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets.
The M&A urgency is reflected in “DNA deals” riding the AI supercycle: deals that embed AI into an organization’s core rather than laying it onto existing products or processes. AI is also pushing infrastructure, power, and utilities players to build faster, and M&As are enabling companies in these sectors to scale up. The demand for liquidity in private markets is also high; general partners have a backlog of 16,000 companies held for over four years, more than half of all buyout-backed inventory. This factor, in combination with strong equity markets, is likely to accelerate dealmaking in the quest for liquidity. “The second half of 2026 will likely see momentum persist, but deals will only grow more complex as volatility becomes the standard operating environment,” the report says. Read the full report on the outlook for M&A in the second half of 2026.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
