Resume af teksten:
Goldman Sachs Research forventer fortsat høje globale obligationsrenter på grund af vedvarende finanspolitiske bekymringer.
Lange obligationsrenter i USA, Japan og Tyskland er steget til de højeste niveauer i årtier.
Analysen peger på større offentlige underskud, øget AI-relateret låntagning og lavere efterspørgsel efter obligationer.
Guld ventes at stige til 4.900 dollar pr. troy ounce ved årets udgang fra omkring 4.300 dollar 10. september.
Centralbanker ventes at købe gennemsnitligt 50 ton guld om måneden i 2026.
Goldman Sachs vurderer, at derivater kan bidrage til større udsving i guldprisen.
Det globale marked for humanoide robotter ventes at nå 138 milliarder dollar i 2035.
Produktionen af humanoide robotter anslås til omkring 6,5 millioner enheder i 2035.
David Solomon mindede om de 2.977 dræbte ved angrebene den 11. september 2001.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
From David Solomon
Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs
Today, as we mark 25 years since September 11, 2001, we remember the 2,977 innocent lives lost at the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. We also join the community in honoring the first responders, recovery workers, and survivors, including the many who have since suffered or passed away from 9/11-related illnesses. Lower Manhattan has been Goldman Sachs’ home since our founding in 1869. In the painful days and weeks following the attacks, we witnessed the extraordinary resilience of New Yorkers and our global Goldman Sachs community. Our people showed up for one another, volunteered at Ground Zero, and demonstrated an unwavering spirit of unity in service of a purpose greater than ourselves. As time passes, it remains our responsibility to preserve these stories and embody the lessons of solidarity and strength that emerged from a period of profound sorrow. We will never forget all those who were lost and those whose lives forever changed.
Why Global Bond Yields Are Expected to Stay Elevated
From the US to Japan and Germany, longer-maturity bond yields have climbed to the highest levels in decades. While some of the factors driving yields higher may dissipate, Goldman Sachs Research expects the fiscal concerns pushing up interest rates to persist.
“What’s really interesting about this move higher in yields is how orderly it’s been,” George Cole, head of European rates strategy in the Global Macro and Markets Research Group, said in a webinar. “The lack of a move higher in volatility makes it hard to claim that we’re fundamentally mispriced.” Fiscal deficits have grown substantially in many developed economies since the Covid pandemic. Borrowing to fund investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has soared, potentially amounting to around 1% of global GDP, adding to the demand for global savings. At the same time, demand for bonds has diminished. Macroeconomic data has been better than expected across a range of geographies, Cole said. While recent inflation data has shown some signs of cooling, energy and food prices remain elevated. Some of the fundamental reasons for rising bond yields could reverse in the coming quarters. For example, more visibility into the return on AI investment could relieve some of the pressure on bond markets from AI-related borrowing. “But what won’t go away are the fiscal concerns,” Cole said. Read the full article on Goldman Sachs Research’s outlook for global interest rates.
Quoted: How Markets Price the Fed
“Markets price what they think the Fed will do, not what they think the Fed should do, and that’s not going to change if you obscure the Fed’s reaction function. You’re just going to have worse guesses on what the Fed will do.” —Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on how less transparency from the Federal Reserve will affect financial markets Listen to the full episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges for more on how the Fed’s policy guidance filters through markets, how reduced guidance impacts volatility, and whether the Fed can follow through with reduced transparency. The episode is based on the latest Top of Mind report .
Gold Is Forecast to Rally amid Rising Volatility
Gold is forecast to rise even as the growing use of some derivatives tied to the metal could be making gold prices more volatile, according to Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, and Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research . Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the precious metal will reach $4,900 per troy ounce by year-end, from around $4,300 as of September 10.
Central banks have been purchasing gold at an increased rate since 2022, when G7 countries froze Russian central bank assets in Europe in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Goldman Sachs Research expects central banks to buy an average of 50 tonnes a month in 2026, up from 17 tonnes a month before 2022. Demand for gold call options is also increasing as investors hedge against large-scale policy changes. Rising prices could prompt option holders to buy gold while also forcing options dealers to buy gold to hedge their short exposure to the metal, accelerating the rally. Conversely, declines can prompt dealers to reverse those hedges, driving prices lower. This could increase the likelihood that the gold price exceeds the forecast, but it also suggests “greater two-sided volatility” to the gold rally, Thomas and Struyven write. While potential Fed hikes pose some downside risk, other factors skew the risks to the 2026 forecast to the upside on net. “ Gold’s share in private portfolios remains low, and recent geopolitical developments—including Iran and broader tensions—may accelerate diversification beyond central banks to private investors, including by weighing on perceptions of Western fiscal sustainability,” Thomas and Struyven write. In case you missed it: Listen to our episode of The Markets podcast for more analysis of gold from the global head of Metals Trading in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities.
The Key Number: $138,000,000,000
As physical AI advances, the total global market for humanoid robots is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to reach $138 billion by 2035, up from a previous forecast of $38 billion. Our analysts estimate the robotics industry will produce roughly 6.5 million humanoids by 2035, which is more than four times greater than their previous forecast. Open-source AI tools and increased funding from private investors and governments are helping drive growth, writes Eric Sheridan, business unit leader of the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Group in Goldman Sachs Research, in a report. Humanoid robots from several providers are moving toward larger-scale prototypes and commercial production. Logistics and warehouse operations are expected to be among the earliest adopters, Sheridan writes. There are still challenges. While robots can handle straightforward tasks, they often struggle with higher levels of complexity and variability. If physical AI programs can absorb enough real-world training data, there should be a significant improvement in performance, the analyst writes. Read more of our insights about AI .
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
