Inflationsudviklingen har været vidt forskellig i USA og Europa, viser en graf fra Goldman Sachs, men man kan sige, at slutresultatet er blevet det samme: En meget høj kerne-inflation. Den europæiske inflation var langt lavere end den amerikanske sidste år og i det meste af i år. I USA var den især drevet af varer, og sidenhen kom service til, mens den voldsomme stigning i Europa i år skyldes energipriserne. Goldman Sachs venter dog, at der vil ske en normalisering i takt med, at efterspørgslen kølnes, og forsyningsvanskelighederne aftager.
Cost Convergence
The initial surge in US inflation was driven by durable goods, and vastly different than the minimal European price pressures early on. However, the more recent surge, which has seen inflation extend to services, has been matched in Europe in magnitude.
While levels may be similar across regions, the key drivers still vary, with energy leading in Europe. Overall, we think inflation will normalize as aggregate demand cools and supply pressures ease.
Source: Eurostat, BLS, Bloomberg, and and Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
