De olierige lande ved Den prsiske Golf bliver ramt hårdere end først antaget af corona-krisen på grund af faldet i olieprisen og den stærkt reducerede afsætning.
Uddrag fra BNP Paribas:
GCC – Counting the cost of Covid-19
KEY MESSAGES
We now think the GCC is more vulnerable to the
Covid-19 epidemic than previously assumed.
Proximity to Iran and heavy reliance on foreign
workers leaves the Gulf highly exposed to the viral
spread.
The main economic hit will likely come through lower
oil prices and exports revenue.
In particular, the impact on regional tourism,
investment flows and healthcare expenditure reinforce
our already bearish outlook on regional growth and
budget balances in 2020.
Covid-19 has spread rapidly: The GCC has emerged
in recent days as the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak
in the Middle East.
To date, the region has seen over 200 reported cases of
Covid-19, a sharp upswing from just three infections in
the UAE on 28 January, when the virus seemed largely
irrelevant to the GCC and broader Middle East.
The Gulf in particular appears susceptible to the
outbreak in neighbouring Iran, where there are
thousands of suspected cases and the numbers look set
to rise further.
OPEC unlikely to fully mitigate demand loss due to
Covid-19: The immediate Covid-19 impact on the GCC
comes through oil prices (see EM trade tracker – Weak
Momentum, 19 February). Since the start of the year,
Brent has fallen by 20.5% to USD52/bbl (Figure 1). While
the signing of a US-China phase 1 trade deal in January
eased economic concerns, these have been revived by
the negative demand shock that the Covid-19 outbreak
represents. The 2003 SARS epidemic, while a useful
benchmark to gauge Covid-19’s impact, is not an entirely
comparable one, with Covid-19 appearing more
contagious and hence more difficult to circumscribe.
Demand for oil products has fallen heavily in China with
industry containment measures, but a comparable
decline in China’s imports for crude oil is, in our opinion,
less likely. Past buying patterns suggest that China
would leverage an opportunity to purchase discounted
crude oil, contingent on storage capacity. This week,
OPEC is holding ministerial level meetings and we
expect that the producer group, along with its non-OPEC
allies, will not extend supply cuts and agree some
measure of incremental output restraint for Q2 (see
OPEC+ proceeding as planned, 21 February). In
addition, with G7 countries and central banks ready to
safeguard economic growth, we are wary for now to
make downward revisions to our already bearish Brent
price view. We expect Brent to average USD54/bbl in Q2
before making a recovery in H2 2020 (see Global growth
downgrade on Covid-19 shock, 18 February).
