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Grafer: Nu starter det årlige Jule Rally på aktiemarkedet

Morten W. Langer

onsdag 29. oktober 2025 kl. 6:08

NASDAQ approaching the upper part of the trend channel, but still not there. Can we get RSI over 70 during this squeeze?

LSEG Workspace
1.October, September, and August 2025 mark the biggest monthly retail buy imbalances since 2019, with September hitting a record ~$3bn in a single day.

2. Since the S&P 500’s April 8th low, retail traders have poured in roughly $292bn, more than any full year from 2019–2024. The retail buy/sell imbalance now shows a 71% correlation (R²) with S&P 500 returns since mid-2021 – a clear sign retail flows are driving the market. Full note here.

GS
Julerally starter nu
“Historically, October 27th (yesterday) has been the local low in the S&P 500 for the second half of the year. From this point, in the 97 years from 1928 to 2024, the S&P has risen 71 times and fallen 26 times. The median gain from today through year-end is 4.0%. That’s slightly lower — around 3.0% – in years when the market has already risen between September 2nd and October 27th, as it has in 2025.” (DB, Reid)
DB
Tæt på neutral
“Our measure of aggregate equity positioning rose modestly this week but is still close to neutral after the sharp cuts last week (0.15sd, 50th percentile).” Full note on positioning here.
Deutsche Bank
As we have been pointing out recently: the crowd is not long enough net risk and will be forced to chase upside exposure via options. This is now playing out. Goldman’s derivatives guru Garrett shows the surge in index call skew, as well as the puke in put skew. We are seeing the most extreme levels since Trump victory in November 2024.
GS PB
Kæmpe upside risk indarbejdet i MAGA
Haven’t seen this much upside risk priced into MAGs since January. The crowd needs to show upside exposure, and are paying up for calls. Chart shows 3 month 25d/atm call skew.
Nomura
Hello old friend
Spot up, volatility up is back…
LSEG Workspace
The VWAP delta
Buybacks about to restart the engines…
UBS
Short gamma, no theta
McElligott’s favorite flow in the tape right now is the synthetic “Negative Gamma” from the Leveraged ETF complex into their end-of-day rebalancing. The mechanical momentum from these flows is chasing strength, selling weakness. Yesterday’s setup implied about +$11.1B of buying, with each 1% move equating to roughly $7B of synthetic short gamma. Over the past week, total rebal flows reached +$17.6B, sitting in the 98th percentile of historical data, pure directional fuel, and don’t forget it works both ways.
Nomura
Nomura
Getting hotter
Early signs of euphoria according to BofA.
BofA

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