Guldprisen er steget med 45 pct. de seneste 18 måneder og har nået et toppunkt. Men vil prisen fortsætte opad? Merrill finder argumenter for en fortsat stigning og for en stabilisering.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
Investment Demand Supports Gold Prices
Gold prices surged about 45% over the past 18 months, with massive debt monetization
by the Fed in the wake of the pandemic crisis spurring expectations for additional big
gains due to inflation concerns.
However, similar widespread fears of rampant inflation after the 2008–2009 Fed balance sheet expansion never materialized. Instead, the dollar strengthened, keeping import prices subdued, while weak economic growth/low labor force participation rates caused prices of domestic goods and services to remain soft.
Not surprisingly, gold dropped from a peak of about $1,900/oz in September 2011 to
about $1,067/oz in late 2015, underperforming equities until worries about the economic
outlook began to surface in late 2018.
Still, gold has remained on an uptrend for two decades, with periods of over- and
undershooting depending on global economic conditions, interest rates, the dollar and risk
appetite. Its recent peak of $1,748/oz on April 14, 2020, was precisely on its extended
2001–2018 trend line (Exhibit 5).
Extrapolating this trend to 2022—which would make sense given the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic growth and to finally achieve its 2% inflation target—indicates prices above $1,800/oz within two years or so.
The question is how much will prices deviate from trend. Elevated political, economic
and geopolitical uncertainty combined with low interest rates should support gold prices
in coming months. On the other hand, inflation is likely to remain subdued, in our view,
because of the effects of the strong dollar and the deflationary nature of the pandemic
as it destroys savings, wealth and demand while leaving production capacity idle (hence
the need for unprecedented Fed intervention to achieve its 2% inflation target).
