Resume af teksten:
Forventninger om en mulig aftale mellem USA og Iran påvirkede aktiemarkederne positivt og sænkede de lange renter. Oliepriserne faldt til under 80 dollar pr. tønde, og der er forslag om, at Iran lader europæiske lande rydde miner i Hormuzstrædet. Sandsynligheden for renteforhøjelser fra ECB og Fed er faldet en smule, og dollaren svækkes en smule. Amerikanske aktieindeks som S&P 500 og Dow Jones nåede nye rekorder, mens Nasdaq næsten steg med 3 procent. I Asien steg aktieindeks i Japan, Taiwan og Sydkorea med mindst 3 procent. Fransk industriproduktion, norske boligpriser og ISM-data fra USA frigives senere i dag. USAs finansminister Bessent udtrykte støtte til at stabilisere yenen og antydede yderligere interventioner. Et svagere yen og højere renter i USA har skabt pres, og Japans dollarreserver kan spille en rolle i interventionerne. Situationen i Hormuzstrædet påvirker også svenske og norske valutakurser.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Hope that the US and Iran are getting closer to an agreement has lifted the stock markets and caused long-term interest rates to fall yesterday. Oil prices fell below $80 per barrel (Brent, first contract) after reports that a proposal had been drafted, and Iran is said to be considering allowing European countries to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines. Expectations of near-term hikes from the Fed and the ECB, among others, fell back slightly and the dollar weakened slightly. The market continues to price in around a 75 percent probability (19bps) of a September hike from the ECB and just under 60 percent probability (14bps) of the same from the Fed.
Both the broader US stock index S&P 500 and the industrial-heavy Dow Jones rose to new record levels , while the Nasdaq rose close to 3 percent. However, semiconductor giant AMD fell despite strong mid-year reporting, and SpaceX fell in after-hours trading after reporting unexpectedly high spending on its AI business. Optimism is also visible in Asia, with stock market indices in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea up by at least 3 percent. Stock market futures indicate a positive opening in both Europe and the US.
During the day, French industrial production, Norwegian housing prices, and US sector service sentiment in the form of ISM will be released.
Bessent: “Whatever it takes” to support Japan. In an interview with CNBC , US Treasury Secretary Bessent explained that the coordinated intervention in the yen last week was seen as important to curb volatility and bring stability to the region. The yen has weakened for a long time as a result of low interest rates, concerns about government finances and heavy dependence on energy imports. The issues are persistnet and investors will probably need to see clearer signs that the Bank of Japan is prepared to raise its policy rate to fight inflation if the yen does not start to weaken again. Meanwhile, some of the pressure is on the United States, especially after Bessent promised that it will do “whatever it takes” to help Japan stabilize the currency and indicated that it can proceed with more interventions.
The US action should also be seen in the context of the recent rise in long-term US interest rates. Japan’s dollar reserves are typically invested in U.S. government securities, which need to be sold to finance interventions. With contributions from the US side, the upward pressure on US interest rates can be limited. Friday’s quotation of 4.73 percent was the highest level for a ten-year Treasury yield since January 2025. Bessent also confirmed that the famous note on his notepad during a cabinet meeting reading “To Do: Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5-10bil,” was indeed a deliberate hint for journalists who could look over his shoulder.
Nordic key stories
The fate of the krona in the near future depends on developments in the Middle East. In addition to the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the Swedish service sector, today’s agenda is thin in anticipation of tomorrow’s exciting inflation outcome. The krona strengthened after reports that the Strait of Hormuz may be opened shortly, and NOK/SEK fell rapidly below parity in line with the oil price decline. According to our estimates, the market remains highly positioned for a stronger NOK and a weaker SEK, and the currency pair correlates very strongly with the price of oil (see graph below). Lower interest rates abroad and stronger global growth prospects would benefit the Swedish krona, but actual progress in the Hormuz crisis is required for the optimism to continue.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/79332
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