Handelsbanken hæfter sig ved, at væksten i eurozonen i 3. kvartal var bedre end ventet, men den kom på baggrund af et stort dyk i andet kvartal, så på årsbasis er der stadig en minusvækst. Udviklingen kan blive dyster i 4. kvartal på grund af de nye lockdown-initiativer, der tilmed kan give politiske problemer. Coronakrisen er langt fra overstået, og ledigheden er steget.
Eurozone GDP surprises to the upside – inflation and unemployment flat
• Inflation (-0.3%) and unemployment (8.3%) were flat in October and September respectively
• The calm before the storm as COVID-19 restrictions will weigh on Q4 activity and potential political risks
Third quarter sequential GDP growth brings surprise to the upside at 12.7%
Flash estimates for GDP in the eurozone in the third quarter of 2020 showed a large sequential uptick, as quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth was 12.7 percent compared to -11.8 percent the previous quarter, and significantly above expectations. The corresponding year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate was -4.3 percent, compared to -14.7 percent in the earlier period. Country-specific estimates for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain showed economies exhibiting outlier positive q-o-q growth rates at 18.2, 8.2, 16.1 and 16.7 percent respectively.
Inflation (-0.3%) and unemployment (8.3%) flat in October and September respectively
The flash annual consumer price index was flat y-o-y in October at -0.3 and core inflation was 0.2 y-o-y and also flat compared to last month. Both were in line with expectations. Across the main categories, food, alcohol and tobacco had the highest annual rate (2.0%, compared with 1.8% the month before), followed by services (0.4%, compared with 0.5%), non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, compared with -0.3%) and energy (-8.4%, compared with -8.2%).
Unemployment rose to 8.3 percent in September, slightly higher than expectations, and was flat after the previous month was revised up two-tenths of a percentage point. Still, we attribute the limited movements overall to fiscal responses by member states in the labour market, which have so far been successful in keeping the headline unemployment numbers at bay.
The calm before the storm as COVID-19 restrictions will weigh on Q4 activity and potential political risks
The better-than-expected GDP release will likely be tempered by how swiftly activity and expectations of near-future activity have tumbled. Significant restrictions across all core eurozone countries have put the euro area recovery in danger, and we are already expecting significant negative sequential growth in France, for example.
Beyond the economic risks to the downside stemming from the pandemic restrictions, we are also increasingly concerned over a potential political fallout of the second wave, as voters could hold politicians more accountable for the adverse environment than they did during the first wave.
