Hidtil værste indtjening i kinesisk industri

Industri-indtjeningen faldt dramatisk i Kina i januar og februar – i både statslige og private virksomheder – med 38,3 pct. Det er det værste fald nogensinde.

Uddrag fra ING:

China: Worst-ever profit data for factories

Industrial profits fell sharply in China’s state-owned and privately-owned enterprises in January and February. What can we expect for March and April?

Workers at en electronic factory in Eastern China

Profits of factories plunged in the first two months

Industrial profits fell 38.3% year-on-year, year-to-date in February from -3.30% YoY YTD in December. This is the worst data on record.

The plunge spanned state-owned (-32.9%YoYYTD) and privately-owned (-36.6% YoY YTD) manufacturers. But manufacturers in Mainland China who are funded by Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan suffered the most serious falls in profits, at 53.6% YoY YTD.

Credit should deteriorate as account receivables lengthen

There is a risk that the profit squeeze leads to a credit event, especially among smaller manufacturers, as the number of days of account receivables has increased to 71.3 days from December’s 53.7 days. Again, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan-funded factories are at a higher risk. The number of days of account receivables they faced is 89.4.

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When account receivables lengthen, the risk of a cash flow problem is higher. The risk of being unable to pay an invoice then goes up, which can turn a liquidity risk into a credit risk.

Some manufacturers are also suppliers. If their upstream manufacturers cannot pay them back in time, they will have difficulty paying their downstream suppliers. The chain effect has been seen in previous difficult times. This is no different.

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